25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.04.2023 Forecast on 10 - 17.04.2023 Carrington Rotation 2969 (24,4.03.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.5 - -6.0) deg.) (S34 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 027+10/ -17 (Wn= 44+12/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED FROM 4 TO 2 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 4 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 79 - CLASS ó, 4 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 42 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, FOUR OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 06.04 0536 0553 0611 S21E87L107 M3.0 3.0E-02 13272 08.04 0138 0146 0155 S18E61L107 M2.9/1N 1.0E-02 13272 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 06.04 ~0500 S38E15L198 ~10 no CME visible 06.04 <1423 <1604 S31W31L152 14 07.04 <1136 SW ~10 CMEII/1136 09.04 1850 1952 S34W36L111 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî* + N17L170 N15L177 N07L168 N15L166 1.0% 11.04 2 G1 SD0, HINOTORI (disintegrated from 8 to 04.09) * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 24.03/0730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 11.03. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 áðòåìø Wus 056 044 037 033 038 049 052 F10.7 134 136 137 137 136 136 140 èbcg B5.0 B5.0 B6.9 B7.3 B7.5 B7.7 ÷9.4 GOES Sp 420 140 170 170 300 310 330 msh N 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.3å+8 8.1E+7 9.2E+7 1.3E+8 3.5å+7 7.7å+7 6.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 4292 2419 3213 4525 1577 2525 1873 pfU Ap 12 12 11 7 7 5 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 11 14 7 9 5 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 27.03/0305 UT AND OBSERVED 27.03 - 09.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE EX- PECTED AFTER 11.02 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov