25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.04.2023 Forecast on 17 - 24.04.2023 Carrington Rotation 2269, 2270 (24,4.04; 20,7.04.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.0 - -5.3 deg.) (S34 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 080+113/-25 (Wn=134+21/-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 6 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HE- MISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 111 -CLASS ó, 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 39 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90- 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.04 0510 0520 0528 S21E87L052 M2.8 1.8E-02 13276 11.04 0951 1016 1039 S19E17L009 M1.3/1N 1.0E-02 13272 14.04 1610 1618 1625 N10E56L022 M1.1 13282 14.04 2318 2327 >0036 N11E54L022 M1.5/1N 13282 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 10.04 >0043 >1321 N18E12L147 9 12.04 <0400 S40W60L102 ~10 CME/0400 15.04 1015 S35W12L056 >10 CME/1224 15.04 1640 S45W30L038 >10 CME/1712 16.04 <2300 N20W10L014 ~10 CME/2300 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 10.04/0615 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 21.04. ------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 APRIL Wus 092 103 127 154 153 151 155 F10.7 140 143 154 160 171 176 178 èbcg B7.7 B7.0 ó1.0 ó1.3 ó1.5 ó1.4 ó1.2 GOES Sp 455 490 580 890 1120 1170 1340 msh N 2 1 2 3 1 IMF -/+ + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.8å+6 1.6E+6 1.5E+6 1.7E+6 1.6å+6 1.3å+6 1.3E+6 GOES Ie>2 832 182 146 132 148 142 165 pfU Ap 13 5 2 5 6 7 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 5 3 7 7 8 4 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE ALL PERIOD. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov