25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.04.2023 Forecast on 01 - 08.05.2023 Carrington Rotation 2270 (20,7.04.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.0 - -5.3 deg.) (S34 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=059 +23/-10 (Wn= 099+37/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE MIDDLE SIZE AND UP 5 OF THEM LOCALI- ZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WE- EKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=90+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 71 -CLASS ó, 9 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 33 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 27.04 1104 1114 1123 S22W05L265 M1.8/ 8.7E-03 13288 CME 30.04 1956 2028 2043 N14E81L141 M2.4/1F 3.8E-02 13293 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 24.04 0030 0439 SE EPL 0.19/B.5A CME/0200 24.04 >0007 >1322 S43W14L296 8 CMEII/1412 26.04 <0530 <0745 EPL 0.16 26.04 <0745 <0938 EPL 0.23/B.6A 28.04 1025 S22W90L >5 CME 28.04 1031 1204 0.33/B9A 29.04 0241 0309 EPL 0.24 29.04 0741 S32W00L ~10 CME/0353 29.04 1824 2047 S19E05L241 7 13287 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N15L300 S08L340 S20L308 N05L299 6.0 27.04 4 ííâ SD0,HINOôORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 19.04/2015 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 8.05. ------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 áðòåìø Wus 088 087 081 136 111 082 105 F10.7 134 131 137 141 150 156 154 èbcg B5.4 B6.1 B6.5 B6.7 ÷6.9 C1.4 ó1.0 GOES Sp 540 520 480 860 850 820 850 msh N 2 2 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 9.4å+6 1.3E+7 1.1E+8 9.3E+7 1.4å+8 4.0å+8 2.5E+8 GOES Ie>2 134 369 4685 4686 3355 19076 7832 pfU Ap 7 7 14 23 19 20 8 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 52 9 11 14 18 18 7 nô IZMIRANN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to-22/0140; max 26 pfu-23/18; te- 24/1500 UT The maximum proton flux is associated with the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave from the flare on 21.04/1744 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 26.04/1235 UT AND OBSERVED AT 26-30.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPECTED AT 1-9.05. AFTER ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH THE DISTURBATION FROM M1.7/2N FLARE (SI - 23.04/1737 UT), A SEVERE MAGNETIC STORM (G4, G4, Ams=117, dur= 24 h) STARTED ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA AND AC- CORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ITS STORM WAS EXTREME (G5, Ams=101, dur= 27 Þ). AT 27 - 29.04 BOTH CENTERS REGISTRED 4 SUBSTORM G0,G1 IN- TENSITY AND DURATION 6-9 h. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov