25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2023 HAS MADE Wapr = 58.0 96.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 34 MONTH (OCTOBER 2022) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct = 59.2 98.7 - in new system W*sep = 57.7 96.2 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR APRIL 2023 (66 observatories): 1.. 61 6.. 48 11..106 16..177í 21..104 26.. 96 2.. 49 7.. 47m 12..124 17..145 22.. 98 27..110 3.. 61 8.. 48 13..147 18..132 23.. 80 28..109 4.. 64 9.. 59 14..159 19..101 24.. 72 29..108 5.. 52 10.. 89 15..173 20..101 25.. 72 30..100 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON APRIL 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON OCTOBER 2022 F10.7apr = 145.9 F*10.7oct= 140.4 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON APRIL 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON OCTOBER 2022 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, Ap apr = 13.3 Ap*oct = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------ 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.05.2023 Forecast on 08 - 15.05.2023 Carrington Rotation 2270 (20,7.04.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.1 - -3.7 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=068 +18/-16 (Wn= 113+30/-24). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO MIDDLE SIZE AND UP 5 OF THEM LOCALI- ZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WE- EKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=90+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 11 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 83 -CLASS ó, 6 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 62 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 3 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angu- lar width 360 deg) AND TWO - TYPE II(90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.05 0055 0121 0129 S24W42L265 M1.1 1.2E-02 13288 01.05 1302 1309 1313 S24W45L265 M7.1 1.2E-02 13288 03.05 0913 0927 0935 S24W83L265 M4.2/1B 2.1E-02 13288 03.05 1003 1014 1019 N12E42L141 M3.1 1.5E-02 13293 03.05 1036 1045 1049 N12E42L141 M7.2 2.4E-02 13293 03.05 1224 1235 1241 N12E41L141 M1.7 8.9E-03 13293 03.05 1335 1350 1420 N14E43L141 M2.2/1B 7.5E-03 13293 04.05 0805 0844>0947 N14E32L124 M3.9/SB 8.0E-02 13296 II/2|717IV/2 CME 05.05 0730 0801 0833 N15E29L124 M2.1 6.0E-02 13296 II/2|997IV/2 CME 05.05 1518 1531 1615 N14E27L124 M1.2/1N 6.3E-03 13296 07.05 2140* 2234 2258 N16W06L124 M1.5 13296 CMEIV/2224 07.05 2253* 2346 2323 N15W05L124 M1.6 13296 * One flare event - two maxima DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 01.05 >0023 >1337 S23W13L 5 03.05 0418 0433 EPL 0.17 04.05 0204 0234 L265 EPL 0.2 13288 06.08 ~1400 >1548 N35W37L 13 CME/1512 06.08 1611 1648 EPL 0.35 07.05 >0111 >1302 N03W22L 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + S20L300 S25L310 S60L300 S28L280 5.8 4.05 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH + N12L269 N12L282 S10L270 N08L259 1.5% 5.05 3 - SD0,HINOôORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 06.05/0320 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.05. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 MAY Wus 087 134 149 139 090 099 099 F10.7 148 157 156 162 162 152 157 èbcg ó1.3 ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.5 ó1.2 B8.8 ×7.3 GOES Sp 840 1110 1170 1220 1020 1050 1050 msh N 4 2 IMF - - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 4.7å+8 2.4E+8 3.4E+8 2.5E+8 2.5å+8 7.7å+6 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 8863 5378 6786 6983 5024 3102 142 pfU Ap 9 8 2 5 3 31 10 nô Dst -49 nô KIOTO Amsc 10 6 6 6 4 26 11 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to=8.05/0120UT; tmax-8.05/1230UT-11.2pfu; continued... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 26.04/1235 UT AND OBSERVED AT 26.04-06.05. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY AFTER 9.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF DAY 6.05, WHEN A FAST CME FROM THE FLARE M3.9 4.05 COMING TO THE EARTH GAVE THE START OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=42, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=33, duration=15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSET- TLED TO ACTIVE BECAUSE OF FLARE ACTIVITY, IN PARTICULAR, IN THE AR13296 ACTIVE REGION. ON MAY 10, A DISTURBATION FROM THE M1.5 FLARE ON MAY 7 SHOULD COME TO THE EARTH (CME velocity 1348 km/s). PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM (up to G2) IS NOT LESS THAN 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov