25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.05.2023 Forecast on 15 - 22.05.2023 Carrington Rotations 2270, 2271 (20,7.04-17,9.05.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -2.8 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=071+21/ -9 (Wn= 118+36/-15). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE - BIG SIZE AND UP 4 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WE- EKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH?, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 9 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 95 -CLASS ó, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FI- LAMENTS AND 49 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TY- PE IV (angular width 360 deg) AND 5 - TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 08.05 2011 2025 2033 N13W18L124 M2.3/2B 13296 09.05 0339 0405 0423 N13W26L124 1N/M6.5 4.4E-02 13296 II/2|774 09.05 0555 0640 0613 N13W24L124 M1.3 1.3E-02 13296 IV/2 09.05 1000 1043 1020 N13W30L124 M1.4 1.6E-02 13296 09.05 1820 1919 1858 N15W31L124 M4.3/1B 1.0E-01 13296 II/2 IV/1 CME 09.05 2032 2052 2104 N14W35L124 M5.0/1N 5.5E-02 13296 10.05 1319 1421 1556 N13W51L141 1B/M2.2 1.8E-02 13293 11.05 0847 0901>0948 S06W41L127 M2.2/1N 1.8E-02 13294 II/2|419 11.05 1813 1829 1838 S05W44L127 M1.8/1N 1.4E-02 13294 II/1|356 IV/1 CMEII/1948 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 10.05 1758 1819 EPL 0.34/B.4A 13.05 <0450 S40W15L136 >5 CME/0450 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N02L062 S07L059 S20L062 S05L053 1.1% - 1 - SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 06.05/0320 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.05. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 íáê Wus 103 151 154 152 134 120 109 F10.7 172 180 170 163 149 144 140 èbcg ó1.3 ó1.5 ó1.3 ó1.1 ó1.0 B9.9 B7.8 GOES Sp 1040 1180 1060 990 820 750 380 msh N 4 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.3å+6 1.0E+7 6.7E+6 1.5E+7 1.2å+7 6.8å+6 1.3E+6 GOES Ie>2 132 435 367 564 592 3102 204 pfU Ap 16 12 24 8 19 31 7 nô Dst -35 -32 -27 -17 -18 nô KIOTO Amsc 15 12 23 12 27 26 8 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10MeV:to=8.05/0120UT; max1- 9/0115-39.9 pfu, to=12/01 UT max2-10/1250-83 pfu; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIBLE AFTER 22.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur=18 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND 2 SUBSTORMS (G1, dur= 9 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER MARKED 9-10.05. THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 27 dur= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN AND A SHORT (3 h) SUBSTORM (G1) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE BOULDER CENTER IN WERE RECOGNITIONED ON 12.05 AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI-12/0635 UT ). BOTH PERTURBATIONS WERE THE CONSEQUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FLARES ACTIVITY ON 7 AND 9.05. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE CONTINUED FLARES ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO GEOEFFICIENT CORONAL HO- LES ON THE VISIBLE DISK. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov