25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.05.2023 Forecast on 22 - 29.05.2023 Carrington Rotations 2270, 2271 (20,7.04-17,9.05.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.7 - -2.1 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=075+18/ -13 (Wn = 124+31/-21). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO-MIDDLE SIZE AND UP 4 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 22 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M (6-LARGE), 125 -CLASS ó, 4 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 50 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg) AND 4-TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 16.05 1631 1643 1651 S23E89L285 M9.6 5.4E-02 13310 II/ CME/1712 17.05 0613 0626 0638 N17E88L257 M1.0 8.6E-03 13311 17.05 0648 0655 0702 N18E88L257 M1.2 7.2E-03 13311 17.05 1132 1147 1200 N20E88L257 M2.2 1.4E-02 13311 17.05 1239 1249 1256 N18E84L257 M1.6 2.4E-02 13311 17.05 2012 2023 2051 N18E82L257 M3.8 1.6E-02 13311 19.05 0015 0054 0141 N18E74L257 M5.3/1n 2.5E-02 13311 19.05 0304 0323 0341 N19E72L257 M1.6/Sn 1.4E-02 13311 19.05 0442 0500 0523 N19E72L257 M2.5/1n 1.8E-02 13311 19.05 1945 2006 2014 N16E61L257 M2.3/Sf 2.0E-02 13311 19.05 2014 2026 2038 N19E69L256 M2.7/ 3.4E-02 13313 19.05 2102 2129 2114 N17E60L257 M1.5 13311 20.05 0649 0702 0718 N18E62L257 M1.1/SF 1.1E-02 13311 20.05 0716 0732 0914 N17E59L257 M6.5/1N 3.3E-02 13311 20.05 0918 0927 0932 S27E66L262 M1.1 8.1E-03 13312 20.05 1048 1054 1110 N17E57L257 M1.6 1.7E-02 13311 20.05 1225 1235 1240 N17E56L257 M8.9 3.0E-02 13311 20.05 1454 1500 1504 N17E55L257 M5.6 1.8E-02 13311 20.05 1857 1903 1907 N18E53L257 M1.1 6.0E-03 13311 20.05 2252 2306 0018 N18E48L257 M5.2/2N 13311 21.05 0218 0233 0223 N18E45L257 M1.4/SN 8.6E-0 13311 21.05 1549 1604 1627 N17E40L257 M2.6/1N 2.6E-02 13311 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 16.05 1054 S12E55L 17.05 0253 0316 N18E90L093 EPL 0.07 C8.6 CME 19.05 0452 0510 S21W29L 13 CME/0730 19.05 1300 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N00L287 S10L327 S27L302 S05L286 6.1% 24.05 2 A SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 20.05/00 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 1.06. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 íáê Wus 103 106 106 121 155 138 140 F10.7 135 134 138 151 165 170 163 èbcg ÷9.5 ÷7.8 ó1.0 ó1.5 ó1.8 C2.3 C1.0 GOES Sp 330 220 470 575 1010 1150 1110 msh N 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 IMF + + + + + + - DSCOVR Å>2 2.9å+6 2.2E+6 2.7E+6 2.4E+6 4.0å+6 1.1å+6 1.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 191 189 162 174 318 146 1084 pfU Ap 5 7 3 2 7 35 23 nô Dst -35 -32 -27 -17 -18 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 6 5 2 8 22 23 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10MeV:to=16.05/14UT; max - 17/07-0.8 pfu, to=20/05 UT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MARKED 21.05. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIBLE AFTER 24.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSENNLED UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY OF 19.05, WHEN THE DISTURBATION FROM FLARES ON 17.05 CAUSED A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 53, dur= 15 h) ACCOR- DING DATA TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=40, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. IN THE AFTER HALF OF 21.05, A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=59, dur=12 h) AGAIN WERE OB- SERVED IN THE BOULDER óENTER DATA AND ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA A MINOR STORM (G1, Ams=38, dur=12 h). NEXT WEEK, 24.05, THE EARTH WILL ENTER A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM A TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF MAG- NETIC STORM ~20%. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov