25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.05.2023 Forecast on 29.04 - 05.06.2023 Carrington Rotations 2271 (17,9.05.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.1 - -1.3 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=076+16/ -20 (Wn= 127+26/-30). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO-MIDDLE SIZE AND UP 3 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 8 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M (1-LARGE), 80-CLASS ó, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 51 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg) AND 2-TYPE II (90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 22.05 1331 1337 1343 N18E24L272 M1.9/SF 13311 II 23.05 1207 1213 1217 N17E11L272 M3.0/SN 7.0E-03 13311 24.05 0951 0958 1002 N18E00L272 M1.0/SN 13311 24.05 1704 1721 1748 N18W03L272 M1.8/1F 13311 24.05 1753 1800 1818 S17E38L234 M1.0/SF 13315 25.05 1437 1446 1509 S26W04L262 M1.1/1N 7.2E-03 13312 26.05 2248 2326 2303 S19E07L234 M1.4 13315 28.05 1021 1055 1036 S15W12L234 M1.0 1.2E-02 13315 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 24.05 0952 >1002 N18E00L272 M1 13311 26.05 0230 S10W80L CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, MAY BE, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N00L287 S10L327 S27L302 S05L286 6.1% 24.05 2 A SDO, HINODE CH + S25L253 S30L293 S55L323 S27L251 3.2% 01.06 2 MMâ SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 20.05/00 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 1.06. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 MAY Wus 097 130 153 121 127 125 119 F10.7 162 155 164 152 149 157 151 èbcg C1.5 C1.2 ó1.0 B8.7 B6.4 ÷8.5 B8.3 GOES Sp 930 820 1360 1120 1200 1320 1540 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.2å+7 4.4E+7 1.8E+8 1.4E+8 2.0å+8 2.6å+8 2.3E+7 GOES Ie>2 1267 1236 2693 3826 4078 4253 2691 pfU Ap 21 12 10 11 5 3 9 nô Dst -35 -32 -27 -17 -18 nô KIOTO Amsc 17 12 12 11 7 5 11 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MARKED 21-28.05. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPECTED 29.05-01.06. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK, 1.06, THE EARTH WILL ENTER A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM A SOUTH CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~10%. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETER- MINED BY THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov