25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 09.06.2023 Forecast on 10 - 19.06.2023 Carrington Rotations 2271 (17,9.05.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.4 - +0.1 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=092+14/ -8 (Wn = 153+24/-20). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 MIDDLE SIZE, AND UP 5 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT CONTINUED TO REMAIN AT MEDIUM AND LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARES OF X-RAY CLASS M, 51-CLASS ó, ONE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 31 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 07.06 1118 1146 1159 S15E36L109 M4.7 5.9E-02 13327 09.06 1648 1711 1725 S21E48L018 M2.5 3.0E-02 13331 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 07.06 1943 2004 EPL 0.16 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 3.06/01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.06. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 05 06 07 08 09 íáê Wus 151 133 177 149 152 F10.7 169 172 168 169 164 èbcg ó1.4 C1.2 ó1.2 ÷9.7 B9.6 GOES Sp 990 990 1000 980 750 msh N 1 2 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- DSCOVR Å>2 1.4å+6 1.5E+6 1.4E+6 1.7E+6 2.7å+6 GOES Ie>2 128 183 163 144 253 pfU Ap 4 5 3 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 8 4 6 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov