25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 26.06.2023 Forecast on 27.06 - 03.07.2023 Carrington Rotations 2271-2272 (17,9.05-14,01.06.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.4 - +2.3 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=090+31/-31 (Wn=151+49/-52). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSER- VED UP 18 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 MIDDLE SIZE, AND UP 8 OF THEM LOCA- LIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT CONTINUED TO REMAIN AT HIGH, MEDIUM AND LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 15 - CLASS M, 141-CLASS ó, FOUR EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 95 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (HALO) AND TWO - TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 16.06 0521 0530 0541 N17E69L266 M1.0 1.2E-03 13337 16.06 1020 1038 1059 N13E65L262 M1.0 1.7E-02 13338 16.06 1952 1959 2007 S24W46L018 M1.0 4.9E-03 13331 18.06 0025 0031 0040 S21E26L281 M1.3 7.1E-03 13336 18.06 1325 1353 1414 S23E22L281 M2.5 4.8E-02 13336 19.06 0337 0350 0358 S12E89L218 M1.4 1.1E-02 13341 II/2|355 19.06 1206 1214 1218 S14E89L218 M1.1 5.4E-03 13341 II/2|954 20.06 1109 1117 1113 S21W67L343 M1.1 13342 20.06 1544 1555 1548 S20W71L343 M1.0 13342 20.06 1627 1633 1642 S21W69L343 M1.1 2.0E-03 13342 20.06 1642 1709 1726 S17E73L218 X1.1 1.4E-01 13341 II/2|1027 IV/1 CME 21.06 1231 1244 1254 S14E59L218 M1.1/1N 1.0E-02 13341 21.06 1531 1538 1543 N19W06L266 M1.0/SF 3.9E-03 13337 II/1|556 22.06 1057 1121 1232 S12E44L218 M1.1/1N 1.7E-02 13341 22.06 2329 2344 0007 S21E41L218 M4.9/SF 13341 II/2 IV/2 DSF CME 26.06 1608 1622>1641 N23W38L236 M1.6/1N 1.2E-02 13340 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 11.06 >0106 >1355 S26E06L 12 CME 13.06 0131 0201 EPL 0.27 14.06 >0133 >1246 N18W32L 6 19.06 >0035 1426 N30W00 11 25.06 <0128 S55E50 >10 CME/0128 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 15.06/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.07. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 JUNE Wus 116 116 116 098 107 112 120 110 133 F10.7 161 153 146 146 144 153 157 158 164 èbcg ó7.7 ÷9.5 ó1.1 ó1.0 ó1.1 ó1.1 ó1.2 ó1.1 ó1.2 GOES Sp 640 630 360 360 690 540 910 950 920 msh N 2 2 2 1 1 IMF + + + + + +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.3å+6 1.5E+6 1.8E+6 2.0E+6 2.7å+6 3.9å+6 1.3å+6 8.4å+6 6.1å+7 GOES Ie>2 191 132 169 146 173 156 417 1619 3835 pfU Ap 4 10 6 7 3 4 24 38 8 nô Dst -24 -54 -22 -34 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 10 7 6 4 4 23 25 9 nô IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JUNE Wus 181 155 190 176 194 200 180 158 F10.7 169 180 176 173 170 161 155 158 èbcg ó1.2 ó1.8 ó1.6 ó1.4 ó1.2 ó1.0 ÷9.1 ÷8.9 GOES Sp 850 750 1260 920 930 890 850 720 msh N 3 2 1 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.6å+7 6.8E+7 3.6E+7 6.1E+7 3.0å+7 2.3å+7 1.2å+7 1.7å+7 GOES Ie>2 2273 2203 1222 2547 973 756 406 583 pfU Ap 11 11 11 8 9 14 15 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 11 8 11 10 4 13 12 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 15/1400UT AND OBSERVED 15-24.06. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM ((G2, Ams=58, dur=24 h) ACCORDING CENTRE BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams= 40, dur= 27 h) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA OB- SERVED 15 -16.06 DUE TU SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 11.06. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov