25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2023 HAS MADE Wmay = 98 163.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 36 MONTH (DECEMBER 2022) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec = 64 106.6 - in new system W*nov = 61.0 101 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JUNE 2023 (63 observatories): 1..155 6..186 11..149 16..132 21..219 26..175 2..147 7..201 12..124 17..132 22..240M 27..159 3..145 8..183 13.. 91m 18..163 23..231 28..138 4..146 9..170 14..118 19..186 24..223 29..110 5..158 10..168 15..126 20..211 25..206 30..111 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JUNE 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON DECEMBER 2022 F10.7june = 162.4 F*10.7dec= 144.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JUNE 2023, AND SMOO- THES ON DECEMBER 2022 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, Ap june = 8.9 Ap*nov = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.06 - 02.07.2023 Forecast on 03 - 10.07.2023 Carrington Rotations 2271-2272 (17,9.05-14,01.06.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (2.3 - 2.9 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 067+28/ -15 (Wn= 112+46/-25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE (AR13354, 1100 ÍÐÄ), AND UP 8 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. ONE FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 6- CLASS M, 105- CLASS C, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 31 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TY- PE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 26.06 1608 1622>1641 N23W38L236 M1.6/1N 1.2E-02 13340 27.06 1453 1514 1639 N23W49L236 M1.2/2B 3.7E-03 13340 28.06 0826 0844 0859 N22W60L236 M1.9/2N 2.0E-02 13340 29.06 1400 1415 1502 N17W13L171 M3.8/2B 2.2E-02 13351 01.07 2207 2223 2231 S22E56L061 M1.1/SN 9.1E-03 13359 02.07 0229 0235 0240 S22E55L061 M2.0 7.4E-03 13359 II/3|379 02.07 2254 2314 2358 N16W60L164 X1.0 13354 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 27.06 1112 1557 S04W62 15 27.06 ~1700 >1657 N21E20 10 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 30.06/0125 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 27.07. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 JULY Wus 158 141 141 112 087 119 126 F10.7 158 151 155 162 159 166 170 èbcg B8.9 ÷9.4 B9.8 ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.4 ó1.4 GOES Sp 720 900 1160 1060 930 1290 1350 msh N 1 1 1 3 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.7å+7 6.2E+7 1.1E+8 6.2E+7 9.4å+7 1.3å+8 1.2å+8 GOES Ie>2 583 2111 3572 2432 2632 2570 2201 pfU Ap 10 7 7 17 7 5 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 9 9 16 7 5 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 27/1250UT AND OBSERVED 27.06-02.07. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED AND 29.06 ACTIVE ONLY. NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov