25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.07.2023 Forecast on 10 - 17.07.2023 Carrington Rotations 2272-2273 (14,01.06 - 11,3.07.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3 - 3.7 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 086+32/ -25 (Wn= 148+49/-47). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG (AR13354, 1100 msh), AND ONE MIDDLE SI- ZE, AND UP 9 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. 5 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 105- CLASS C, 4 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 32 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE - WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg)AND TWO WERE TYPE II (090-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.07 0629 0653 0738 S15E40L066 M1.4/1N 7.0E-03 13358 04.07 1220 1235 1316 N16W89L164 M1.5/SF 2.1E-02 13354 05.07 1836 1858 1921 N24E35L038 M1.0/SF 13361 06.07 1032 1116 1049 N15W89L164 M1.1 1.6E-02 13354 07.07 0617 0638 0629 S21W13L061 M4.0/2B 2.3E-02 13359 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 03.07 1535 1736 S35E41L115 12 13359 óíå 06.07 06/1800 N42E50 06.07 06/2058 N27E45 CME/2148 07.07 >0045 >1335 S23W52 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 30.06/0125 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 27.07. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 éàìø Wus 117 121 101 149 167 197 183 F10.7 171 167 154 158 161 161 179 èbcg ó2.0 ó1.3 ó1.6 ó1.3 ó1.2 ó1.0 ó1.3 GOES Sp 1400 1310 270 980 910 830 950 msh N 1 1 2 2 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+8 1.5E+8 1.4E+8 8.6E+7 1.3å+7 3.1å+7 4.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 3083 3264 3533 1260 650 830 860 pfU Ap 4 4 6 10 17 6 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 8 14 19 5 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 27/1250UT AND OBSERVED 27.06-06.07. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY EXPECTED AFTER 14.07. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED AND 7.07 ACTIVE, IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIDING IMPACT OF THE CME FROM THE 3.07 SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTION. NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov