25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.07.2023 Forecast on 17 - 24.07.2023 Carrington Rotation 2273 (11,3.07.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3 - 3.7 deg.) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 087+35/-29 (Wn=146+71/-50). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TW0 BIG, AND UP 5 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. 20 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M (3-LARGE, 81- CLASS C, 7 EJECTION OF SOLAR FI- LAMENTS, 64 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, TWO WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), THREE- TYPE III (180-270 deg) AND 13- TYPE II (090-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.07 0329 0355 0412 S13W49L052 M2.3/2N 4.0E-02 13366 II CME 10.07 2206 2218 2229 S12W59L066 M1.4/1N 1.3E-02 11.07 1419 1435 1445 N25E88L276 M2.0 1.8E-02 13372 11.07 1602 1612 1635 N24E88L276 M1.1 2.0E-02 13372 11.07 1751 1808 1816 S19W57L050 M6.8/SF 5.2E-02 13368 11.07 1920 1929 1939 N24E87L276 M1.0/SF 1.1E-02 13372 11.07 2204 2215 2224 N25E88L276 M5.8 3.2E-02 13372 11.07 2334 2337 2345 S19W59L050 M1.2 13368 12.07 0021 0031 0040 N11W24L052 M1.4/SF 1.3E-02 13366 12.07 0431 0445 0458 N24E88L276 M1.3 3.0E-03 13372 12.07 0510 0514 0523 N25W48L038 M1.3/1F 2.5E-03 13361 12.07 0849 0855 0912 N24E77L276 M6.9/1N 2.5E-02 13372 13.07 1855 1920 1936 N24E57L276 M2.1/1N 3.2E-02 13372 14.07 0922 0936 0949 S19W24L344 M1.0/SF 13363 15.07 0721 0741 0810 S25W40L344 M2.9/2B 3.7E-02 13363 CME/0737 15.07 0942 0953 1018 N21E42L276 M1.0/1N 4.3E-03 13372 15.07 1005 1010 1014 N21E41L276 M2.2 5.2E-03 13372 II/2|229 16.07 0816 0826 0830 N21E30L276 M1.0 1.0E-03 13372 16.07 1457 1508 1512 N23E27L276 M1.7/1B 9.7E-04 13372 IV/2 16.07 1736 1746 1817 S23W58L344 M4.0/2B 8.5E-04 13363 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 11.07 1743 1847 S330W00 15 13363 CME/1924 13.07 0509 0543 EPL 0.17|B.1A C9.4/1B 13372 13.07 1358 1402 EPL 0.2|B.9A 13.07 1833 1905 EPL 0.2 13372 14.07 1013 (SW-13363) CME 14.07 1418 1433 EPL 0.23|B.9A 13369 14.07 1958 2022 S15E08L303 >10 C3.1/SF 13370 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 14.07/0800 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 27.07. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 éàìø Wus 181 227 219 146 141 096 099 F10.7 191 214 193 203 181 179 184 èbcg ó1.9 ó2.6 ó2.7 ó2.9 ó1.3 ó1.2 ó1.3 GOES Sp 1290 1860 2140 1870 1960 1690 1700 msh N 1 2 2 2 IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 4.1å+7 2.0E+7 1.5E+7 8.8E+6 1.8å+6 1.2å+6 1.3å+7 GOES Ie>2 933 845 486 443 293 150 157 pfU Ap 3 6 6 7 20 17 7 nô Dst -30 -12 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 9 8 9 18 7 8 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. SOLAR PROTONS EVENTS: Pr>10 MeV 1): to-15/2025 UT; max:16/0130 UT-1.9 pfu; 2): to 16/0530 UT; max:16/0730 UT-18 pfu - continue... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN AT 15/2025UT AND OBSERVED 27.06-06.07. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY EXPECTED AFTER 14.07. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE ON JULY 14, WHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE GRIDING IMPACT OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTION ON JULY 11, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BECAME AC- TIVE - A SUBSTORM G1(dur. 6 h). NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET, HOWEVER, JULY 17 IN THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE WILL COME DISTURBA- TIONS FROM A FILAMENT EJECTION ON JULY 14 AND FROM A SIGNIFICANT C8.8 CLASS FLARE ON JULY 15, CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OF WHICH CAN MODIFY, WHICH CAN LEAD TO A MAGNETIC STORM WITH AT LEAST 40% PROBA- BILITY. ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE TO THE SPACE SAT- TELIT ACE - 16/1836, THE CORRESPONDING SUDDEN PULSE IN THE GEOMAG- NETIC FIELD - 16/1920 UT. THERE IS NO MAGNETIC STORM AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGHLITE PUBLICATION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov