25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 23.07.2023 Forecast on 24 - 31.07.2023 Carrington Rotation 2273 (11,3.07.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (4.5 - 5.1 deg) (S27 - N33 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=078+12/-16 (Wn=129+20/-26). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TW0 BIG SIZE, AND UP FIVE OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. 11 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M (2-LARGE), 84-CLASS C, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FI- LAMENTS, 73 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, TWO OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), AND FIVE- TYPE II (090-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 17.07 2241 2254 2306 S25W81L344 M2.7 2.8E-02 13363 17.07 2317 2337 2334 S21W81L344 M5.0 13363 CME 17.07 2337 0006 0023 S26W87L344 M5.7 13363 CME 18.07 1932 1948 2000 N27E35l229 M1.3 2.0E-02 13376 18.07 2000 2005 2011 N26E35l229 M1.4 7.0E-03 13376 18.07 2016 2027 2035 S21W87L344 M2.1 2.1E-02 13363 18.07 2337 0006 0023 S20W88L344 M5.7 13363 CME/II 19.07 1049 1057 1102 S20W88L344 M1.4/SF 13363 19.07 1704 1725 1743 S18W88L344 M3.8 5.2E-02 13363 II/|429 CME/II 22.07 0312 0355 0415 N23W54L276 M3.1/2N 4.3E-02 13372 CME 22.07 0412 0424 0515 N06W29L245 M1.0/1F 7.1E-03 13373 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 19.07 2240 2255 N29W62L189 15 C3.0 II/1|444 CME 22.07 1558 >16 N24E18L230 10 13378 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 14.07/0800 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 27.07. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JULE 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 JULY Wus 149 242 141 131 121 103 117 F10.7 180 219 189 184 173 174 173 èbcg ó1.5 ó2.1 ó1.5 ó1.1 ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.4 GOES Sp 1980 1850 1660 1570 1500 1320 1300 msh N 3 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.2å+6 2.6E+7 5.5E+7 5.6E+7 6.6å+6 2.6å+6 4.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 115 936 1140 1856 360 173 202 pfU Ap 19 14 4 9 11 8 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 16 14 6 - 13 8 13 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. SOLAR PROTONS EVENTS: Pr>10 MeV 1): to-15/2025 UT; max:16/0130 UT-1.9 pfu; 2): to 16/0530 UT; max:16/0730 UT-18 pfu 3): tO-17/23 UT; max:18/0615-620 pfu: to-22/13 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS OBSERVED 19?-20.07, ALTHOUGH THE BEGINNING IS GIVEN 20.07/1635 UT. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE ON 17-18.07, WHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE GRIDING IMPACT OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTION ON 14.07, AND FLARE OF C8.8 CLASS ON 15.07 THREE CONSECUTIVE G0 SUBSTORMS (lasting 3-6 h) WERE NOTED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov