25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 24 - 30.07.2023
Forecast on 31 - 07.08.2023
Carrington Rotation 2273 (11,3.07.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (5 - 5.6 deg)
(S27 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 087+05/-
05 (Wn = 145+09/-07). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 13
SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP SEVEN OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HE-
MISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.
FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. 12 FLARE
OF X-RAY CLASS M, 89-CLASS C, 6 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS, 38
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width
360 deg), AND FIVE- TYPE II (090-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
25.07 0136 0203 0222 N25W51L229 M1.5/2N 2.9E-02 13376
25.07 2108 2116 2124 S10E40L123 M1.6/SF 1.0E-02 13380
26.07 0421 0428 0433 N21W65L229 M1.2/1B 8.1E-03 13376 CME/0524
26.07 1017 1037 1048 N21W70L229 M4.6 4.0E-02 13376 CME/1100
26.07 1505 1550 1659 N19W73L229 M2.0/1B 1.3E-02 13376
26.07 1610 1613 1633 N20W76L229 M1.1 1.3E-02 13376
27.07 0944 0951 0958 N21W85L229 M1.9/SF 1.3E-02 13376
27.07 2204 2234 2305 S21E68L092 M1.7/SF 13388 CME/2324
28.07 1539 1558 1613 N27W87L229 M4.1/EPL 5.6E-02 13376 II CME/1548
29.07 1611 1637 1624 S11W09L123 M1.4/1N 1.4E-02 13380
30.07 0801 0818 0814 S18E57L056 M1.8/1F 1.4E-02 13390
30.07 0818 0826 0822 S18E59L056 M1.9/SF 9.3E-03 13390
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
28.07 1546 1611 EPL 0.3 M4.1 13386 CME/1548
28.07 <1651 <1704 EPL 0.17/B.9A
28.07 >1916 >1947 N28W69L040 8
28.07 2030 N27E25L155 ~10 CME/2224
28.07 2020 2120 N25E11L141 27
29.07 0816 0951 S25W47L083 7
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 26.07/16 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 12.08.
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JULY 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 JULY
Wus 141 137 147 154 148 147 139
F10.7 165 169 167 165 168 179 174
èbcg ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.9 ó1.8 ó1.6 ó1.4 ó1.3 GOES
Sp 1145 1110 955 1010 1210 1140 1010 msh
N 3 1 2 3 1 1
IMF - - -/+ + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 8.0å+6 5.8E+6 5.3E+6 1.5E+7 2.8å+7 2.7å+7 1.5å+7 GOES
Ie>2 345 342 330 661 753 1025 591 pfU
Ap 6 8 19 5 6 8 8 nô
Dst -25 -59 -32 nô KIOTO
Amsc 6 11 19 7 10 11 7 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
SOLAR PROTONS EVENTS:
Pr>10 MeV 1): to-28/1730 UT; max:29/0520 UT-154 pfu; continued...
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MADE
ON 29.07 ONLY (fluctuation).
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV
IS NOT EXPECTED.
A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 29, duration= 15 h) ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IS OBSERVED AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI-25.07 2253 UT) FROM THE EJECTION OF
SOLAR FILAMENT ON 22.07 FROM THE CENTRAL ZONE OF SOLAR DISC. ACCOR-
DING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS A 9-hour G1 INTENSITY SUBSTORM.
ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO
UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov