25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2023 HAS MADE Wjul = 96.0 159.1(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 37 MONTH (JANUARY 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan = 68.0 113.3 - in new system W*dec = 64 106.6 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JULY 2023 (59 observatories): 1..136 6..146 11..210M 16..165 21..146 26..153 31..183 2..149 7..156 12..197 17..159 22..139 27..145 3..155 8..178 13..151 18..165 23..141 28..164 4..141 9..178 14..152 19..162 24..137 29..179 5..136 10..191 15..129m 20..173 25..136 30..180 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JULY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON JANUARY 2023 F10.7july = 177.5 F*10.7jan= 148.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2023, AND SMOO- THES ON JANUARY 2023 Ap july = 8.1 Ap*nov = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.07 - 06.08.2023 Forecast on 07 - 14.08.2023 Carrington Rotations 2273-2274 (11,30.07-07,51.08.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (5.6 - 6.0 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 080+38/ -22 (Wn= 134+63/-37). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 6 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI- SPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X- RAY CLASS X, 19 CLASS-M, 94-CLASS C, 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILA- MENTS, 49 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (an- gular width 360 deg), 1- TYPE III(180-270) AND 6- TYPE II (090- 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 31.07 0842 0900 0913 S20E44L056 M1.6/2F 2.1E-02 13390 01.08*0138 0156 0246 S08W39L123 M1.0/SF 1.2E-02 13380 01.08*0158 0203 0207 S09W41L123 M1.2 6.8E-03 13380 01.08 0427*0447 1034 S09W41L123 M2.2/1N 5.9E-03 13380 01.08 0530*0537 0543 S09W42L123 1N/M1.3 9.3E-03 13380 01.08 0628 0657 0719 S09W43L123 1N/M1.3 7.4E-02 13380 01.08 0903 0909 0916 S08W42L123 1N/M1.3 8.5E-03 13380 01.08 1402 1409 1427 S10W45L123 M1.4/1N 1.2E-02 13380 01.08 2139 2151 2158 S10W52L123 M1.0 13880 02.08 0803 0812 0938 N11W22L092 M1.3/1F 1.1E-02 13386 II/IV CME DSF 02.08 1040 1050 1057 S10W61L123 M1.2/1F 2.7E-03 13380 02.08 1446 1452 1456 S11W58L123 M1.7/SF 4.7E-03 13380 02.08 1612 1622 1626 S10W63L123 M1.3 5.3E-03 13380 02.08 1909 1914 1921 S11W65L123 M1.1 7.9E-03 13380 03.08 1147 1155 1159 S13W75L123 M2.0/SF 13380 04.08 0338 0424 0623 N11W52L092 M1.9/1N 7.9E-02 13386 II/2 CME/0428 05.08 0616 0718 0810 N07W69L092 M1.6/1N 1.1E-01 13386 II/|572 CME/IV|0728 05.08 0923 0952 0936 S08W88L123 M2.1 2.7E-02 13380 05.08 2145 2221 2244 N11W77L092 X1.6 3.0E-01 13386 óíå 06.08 1820 1858 1840 N08W89L092 M5.5/SN 6.0E-02 13386 CME *- two X-ray burst in one otical flare. DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 31.07 1615 1925 S05E03L093 19 CME/2300 02.08 ~0803 ~0821 N11W22L092 >10 M1.3 13386 CME/0936 05.08 <0700 S05W62L090 19 M1.6 CMEII/0700 05.08 0634 0634 EPL 0.18 13392 05.08 1820 1950 N23W44L073 15 13387 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + S32L003 S50L028 S51L028 S40L398 2.0% 7.09 1 - SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 26.07/16 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 12.08. ------------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 á÷çõóô Wus 197 160 135 124 122 100 097 F10.7 177 175 173 163 171 176 174 èbcg ó1.5 ó2.3 ó2.2 ó1.5 ó1.5 ó1.4 ó1.3 GOES Sp 1290 1550 900 1020 1100 880 860 msh N 2 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.2å+7 3.3E+7 1.3E+6 1.1E+7 2.3å+6 1.2å+6 1.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 935 2013 195 126 < 106 138 pfU Ap 6 8 12 5 12 35 2 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 11 15 10 17 21 4 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. SOLAR PROTONS EVENTS: Pr>10 MeV 1): to-28.07/1730 UT; max-29/0520-154 pfu; te=2.08/2400. 2): to-5.08/1730 UT; max-5/0520-18.5 pfu; te=5.08/2330. 3): to-5.08/2230 UT; max-6/0130-17.7 pfu; continued... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MADE ON 1.08 ONLY (fluctuation). NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=49, ÄÌÉÔ=24h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IS OBSERVED AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE INTER- PLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI-5.08/0253) FROM THE FLARE M1.3 WITH EJEC- TION OF SOLAR FILAMENT ON 2.08 AND ACCOMPANIED BY ALL DYNAMIC PHE- NOMENA. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 33, dur= 24 h). ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 60% PROBABILITY THAT THE DISTURBANCE FROM GEOEFFICIENT FLARES M1.6 AND X1.6 5.08 CAN CAUSE A MAGNETIC STORM ON 8-9.08 WITH INTENSITY UP (G3). HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov