25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07. - 13.08.2023 Forecast on 14 - 21.08.2023 Carrington Rotation 2274 (07,51.08.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.0 - 6.5 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 056+19/ -19 (Wn = 094+31/-33). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 3 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI- SPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MODERATE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO HIGH LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X- RAY CLASS X, 6- CLASS M, 88- CLASS C, AND 64 CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), 3-TYPE II (090-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 07.08 0429 0451 0441 N10W89L092 M2.4 1.9E-02 13386 CME 07.08 1525 1611 >1632 N16W81L073 M1.0/SF *3.2E-02 13387 CME 07.08 1530 1636 1627 N15W79L092 M1.0/SF *3.2E-02 13386 07.08 1624 1632 1626 N21W73L073 M1.0/SF *3.2E-02 13387 07.08 1937 1951 >2123 N19W75L073 M1.4/2N 1.1E-02 13387 07.08 2030 2104 2046 N12W88L092 X1.5 2.8E-01 13386 II/2 CME 08.08 0920 0941 0931 N18W84L073 M3.6 2.5E-02 13387 *- two X-ray burst in one otical flare. DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + S32L003 S50L028 S51L028 S40L398 2.0% 7.09 1 - SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 9.07/0500 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 23.08. ------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 AUGUST Wus 101 115 103 083 105 061 089 F10.7 170 159 153 156 153 148 150 èbcg ó1.4 ó1.0 B9.1 B9.6 ó1.2 B9.3 B7.9 GOES Sp 430 315 540 460 420 460 460 msh N 3 1 3 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+6 2.2E+7 4.6E+7 3.5E+7 4.8å+7 4.2å+7 5.9å+7 GOES Ie>2 - 720 1772 1708 1386 1031 1368 pfU Ap 10 7 6 6 4 6 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 8 9 6 4 6 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. SOLAR PROTONS EVENTS: Pr>10 MeV 1) to-5.08/2230 UT; max-6/0130-17.7 pfu; 7/2000; 2) to-7.08/2000 UT; max-8/1720-47.7 pfu; 10/2345; 3) to-11.08/0015 UT; max-11/0600-2.1 pfu; 13/0930. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 9.08/1530 UT AND HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 9-13.08. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPECTED 14-17.08. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov