25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.08.2023 Forecast on 21 - 28.08.2023 Carrington Rotation 2274 (07,51.08.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.5 - 6.8 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 066+18/ -10 (Wn= 111+29/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 6 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI- SPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 72 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS C, TW0 SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION, AND 68 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, FOUR OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 090 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 17.08 ~1240 <1306 N15W90L306 EPL 16 C5.1 13397 II/|617 CME 18.08 >0018 >1623 S35E28L187 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft no geoeffective coronal holes on visible disc * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 9.08/0500 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. 16.08/1500-17/1850 UT SECTOR "+" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 23.08. ------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 AUGUST Wus 085 107 140 135 112 104 093 F10.7 154 158 160 152 151 151 146 èbcg ÷8.9 é9.1 B8.6 B8.0 ÷6.8 B6.6 B7.0 GOES Sp 650 530 830 700 570 470 490 msh N 1 3 3 1 1 IMF - - -/+ +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 4.8å+7 2.2E+7 1.2E+7 1.3E+6 1.5å+6 2.7å+6 1.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 1252 899 732 < 157 193 100 pfU Ap 4 3 7 6 11 7 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 8 7 11 7 9 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 9.08/1530 UT AND HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 9-14.08. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov