25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.08.2023
Forecast on 21 - 28.08.2023
Carrington Rotation 2274 (07,51.08.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (6.5 - 6.8 deg)
(S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 066+18/
-10 (Wn= 111+29/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11
SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 6 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI-
SPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.
FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 72 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS
C, TW0 SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION, AND 68 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS,
FOUR OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 090 - 180 deg), HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
17.08 ~1240 <1306 N15W90L306 EPL 16 C5.1 13397 II/|617 CME
18.08 >0018 >1623 S35E28L187 9
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
no geoeffective coronal holes on visible disc
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 9.08/0500 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. 16.08/1500-17/1850 UT SECTOR "+" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT
SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 23.08.
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AUGUST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 AUGUST
Wus 085 107 140 135 112 104 093
F10.7 154 158 160 152 151 151 146
èbcg ÷8.9 é9.1 B8.6 B8.0 ÷6.8 B6.6 B7.0 GOES
Sp 650 530 830 700 570 470 490 msh
N 1 3 3 1 1
IMF - - -/+ +/- - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 4.8å+7 2.2E+7 1.2E+7 1.3E+6 1.5å+6 2.7å+6 1.3å+6 GOES
Ie>2 1252 899 732 < 157 193 100 pfU
Ap 4 3 7 6 11 7 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 5 4 8 7 11 7 9 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE-
GUN 9.08/1530 UT AND HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 9-14.08.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV
IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov