25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.08.2023 Forecast on 28.08 - 04.09.2023 Carrington Rotation 2275 (03,75.09.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.9 - 7.2 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=052+9/-11 (Wn= 087+15/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 10 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND UP 4 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 3 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 58 -CLASS C, TW0 SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION, AND 51 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg) AND 2 - TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 22.08 2235 2304 2338 N10W30L186 M1.1 13405 25.08 0056 0109 0144 S12E50L081 M1.4/1N 6.2E-04 13415 CME(SE) 26.08 2205 2250 2342 S05E89 M1.1 CME DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 17.08 ~1240 <1306 N15W90L306 EPL 16 C5.1 13397 II/|617 CME 18.08 >0018 >1623 S35E28L187 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft no geoeffective coronal holes on visible disc * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 24.08/1710 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 4.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 AUGUST Wus 102 096 099 086 077 075 069 F10.7 149 151 147 144 133 139 142 èbcg ÷9.0 B8.4 B8.2 B6.7 ÷5.1 B5.1 B6.7 GOES Sp 660 700 900 950 930 640 610 msh N 2 1 1 IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.8å+6 8.1E+6 1.2E+7 1.1E+7 3.4å+6 5.5å+6 1.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 220 340 362 602 190 285 239 pfU Ap 8 7 3 7 4 6 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 6 4 8 5 9 11 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov