25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2023 HAS MADE Waug = 69.0 115(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 38 MONTH (FEBRUARY 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb = 70.7 118 - in new system higher of SC24 W*jan = 68.0 113.3 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR AUGUST 2023 (64 observatories): 1..180M 6..125 11..106 16..149 21..110 26.. 91 31.. 90 2..163 7..124 12.. 80m 17..146 22..115 27.. 84 3..147 8..123 13..101 18..124 23..105 28.. 84 4..123 9..103 14..117 19..131 24.. 91 29.. 88 5..135 10..108 15..122 20..102 25.. 89 30..104 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON AUGUST 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON FEBRUARY 2023 F10.7aug = 153.9 F*10.7feb= 152.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON AUGUST 2023, AND SMOO- THES ON FEBRUARY 2023 Ap aug = 7.3 Ap*feb = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.08 - 03.09.2023 Forecast on 04 - 11.09.2023 Carrington Rotation 2274-2275 (07,51.08 - 03,75.09.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (7.1 - 7.2 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=048+8/-7 (Wn= 080+14/-12). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 6 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND 3 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 3 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M (ONE LARGE), 53 -CLASS C, TW0 SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION, AND 51 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS TYPE III (angular width 180-270 deg) AND 4 - TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.09 0220 0352 0410 N16W64L094 M1.2 6.7E-02 13413 II/2|743IV/2 CME 2 peaks 0318 M1.0 0355 M1.2 Pr 02.09 0633 0712 0738 N06W89L094 M3.3/SF 7.5E-02 13413 03.09 0809 0856 0836 N12W88L094 M6.0 6.4E-02 13413 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 30.08 2015 S18W24L028 ~10 ó1.4 image 02.09 1730 N30W40L307 >7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft no geoeffective coronal holes on visible disc * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 24.08/1710 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. FROM 31.08 TO 2.09 THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR WAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING AND AFTER 02.09/0220 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR. NEXT SEC- TOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 SEPTEMBER Wus 068 082 094 077 083 077 079 F10.7 142 142 139 140 136 131 131 èbcg ÷5.9 B5.8 B6.0 B6.0 ÷6.0 B6.3 B7.0 GOES Sp 650 740 700 650 580 370 230 msh N 1 1 1 2 IMF +/- - - -/+ + +/- ~ DSCOVR Å>2 5.5å+6 2.6E+6 1.5E+6 1.2E+6 1.3å+6 5.0å+6 1.9å+7 GOES Ie>2 332 216 187 121 111 344 836 pfU Ap 5 3 5 5 12 36 24 nô Dst -52 -92 -68 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 5 7 6 12 32 23 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10: to-01.09/0200 UT; max 25.8-01.09/0610; te- 2.09/1930 - BUT, the background on level 0.2-0.7 pfu continued... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 2.09, WHEN A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM STARTED (G2, Ams=42, dur=33 h) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G1, Ams=36, dur=33 h) AC- CORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN. THE MOST PROBABLE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBATION WAS THE INTERACTION OF 2 CMEs FROM 30.08/2015 UT SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION (ó1.4) AND THE FLARE OF C3.0 X-RAY CLASS AT 30.08/ 2320 UT. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov