25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.09.2023 Forecast on 04 - 11.09.2023 Carrington Rotation 2275 (03,75.09.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (7.1 - 7.25 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=079+38/-9 (Wn= 113+54/-13). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 13 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND 5 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 93 -CLASS C, AND 5 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), AND THREE - TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 05.09 0803 0812 0840 N16W04L343 M2.0/1N 1.6E-02 13421 05.09 1933 1945 1957 N16W10L343 M1.2/1N 1.1E-02 13421 II/2/1314 CME 05.09 2321 2339 2353 N15W11L343 M1.0/SF 3.0E-03 13421 07.09 1858 1909 1924 N20E57L247 M2.1/1B 2.2E-02 13425 II/2|1238 CME DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N48L308 N45L308 N25L277 N30L275 1.9% 13.09 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH - N10L270 N05L273 S10L282 N11L277 1.3% 13.09 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH - S25L235 S35L253 S40L238 S20L223 1.1% 14.04 1 - SD0,HINOôORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 2.09/0220 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD BUT VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 SEPTEMBER Wus 100 122 131 135 123 119 167 F10.7 136 143 147 161 161 161 164 èbcg ÷7.9 B7.7 B7.3 B8.8 ó1.0 C1.0 C1.1 GOES Sp 140 325 625 585 620 620 670 msh N 2 1 1 1 1 4 IMF -/~ - -/~ -/~ - - ~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.7å+7 4.0E+7 1.2E+7 1.3E+7 2.4å+7 4.8å+6 2.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 514 1869 830 398 834 288 178 pfU Ap 6 10 7 5 5 7 2 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 14 8 7 6 8 4 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10: to-01.09/0200 UT; max 25.8-01.09/0610; te- 2.09/1930 - BUT, the background on level 0.2-0.7 pfu continued up to 4.09/16 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER, ON 13-14.09 THE EARTH WILL PASS THREE CONSE- CUTIVE A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLES "+" AND "-" POLARITIES (see table) WITH CHARACTERISTICS ALLOWING INFLUENCE ON THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNI- FICANT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES ON THESE DAYS IS ~20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov