25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.09.2023 Forecast on 18 - 25.09.2023 Carrington Rotation 2275 (03,75.09.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (7.24 - 7.19 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=82+39/-20 (Wn= 117+56/-29). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND UP 5 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 11 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 73 - CLASS C, 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 65 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), AND FIVE -TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 11.09 0108 0128 0213 N09E65L204 M1.4/1F 2.9E-02 13429 II/2|0547 11.09 0358 0407 0427 S05E58L203 M1.1/SN 8.4E-03 13431 11.09 1438 1449 1511 S04E50L203 M1.1/SN 8.7E-03 13431 12.09 0418 0426 0516 N22E02L247 M1.9/1B 7.1E-03 13425 12.09 0647 0707 0754 N16W32L281 M2.6/2N 1.4E-03 13423 14.09 0640 0745 0839 N15W72L284 M1.4/DSF 6.5E-02 13423 CME/0712 14.09 1923 1931 1940 N12E09L204 M1.9/SN 1.1E-02 13429 14.09 2117 2126 2132 N12E08L204 M2.5/SN 13429 15.09 2219 2229 2234 N12W08L204 M1.7/1F 13429 16.09 0038 0050 0057 N10W08L204 M2.9/1N 1.5E-02 13429 16.09 0528 0538 0638 N10W11L204 M3.4/1B 3.2E-02 13429 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 14.09 0644 ~N16W72L284 10 CME/0712 14.09 2015 N38W20L ~10 CME/0012 15.09 >0038 >1346 S06E04L 11 16.09 0434 N22W17 ~35 CME/0912 17.09 ~1200 SW-Limb CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N48L308 N45L308 N25L277 N30L275 1.9% 12.09 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH - N10L270 N05L273 S10L282 N11L277 1.3% 12.09 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH - S25L235 S35L253 S40L238 S20L223 1.1% 13.04 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH - N47L201 N42L206 N31L176 N33L171 1.4% 18.09 1 - SD0,HINOôORI CH*+ S35L196 S48L221 S52L222 S35L186 1.1% 17.04 1 - SD0,HINOôORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.09/14 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD, BUT ALREADY ON 14.09/0812 UT IT RETURNED TO THE "-" SECTOR. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 óåîôñâòø Wus 173 141 109 110 096 088 094 F10.7 176 154 143 145 139 140 145 èbcg ó1.5 ó1.4 B7.8 ó1.2 ó1.0 C1.0 B9.2 GOES Sp 685 605 550 570 490 330 360 msh N 1 1 1 1 1 IMF -/~ - -/~ -/~ - - ~ DSCOVR Å>2 2.7å+6 2.6E+6 1.3E+6 6.2E+6 3.9å+6 6.5å+6 2.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 174 328 121 411 200 259 167 pfU Ap 5 24 17 17 7 6 15 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 39 13 15 7 9 15 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10MeV: to-17.09/01 UT; max 1.98 pfu-17.09/05 UT; continued... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=31, dur=18 h) ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=37, dur=15h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED ON 12- 13.09 AS A REACTION ON THE PAS- SAGE OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLES "+" AND "-" POLARITIES (see table-the first three CH). ON OTHER DAYS, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE AN UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HOWEVER, ON 19.09, A DISTURBANCE WILL COME TO THE EARTH DUE TO EJECTION (16.09) OF A LARGE FILAMENT FROM THE CENTRAL ZONE OF THE SUN, WHICH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY CAN CAUSE A MAGNETIC STORM OF CLASS G1-G2. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov