25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2023 HAS MADE Wsep = 94.0 114.9(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 39 MONTH (MARCH 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÍÁÒÔ = 84.8 121.2 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÆÅ× = 70.7 117.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR SEPTEMBER 2023 (67 observatories): 1.. 86 6..120 11..189 16.. 88 21..189 26..140 2.. 83m 7..131 12..145 17.. 90 22..198í 27..131 3.. 92 8..117 13..129 18..126 23..195 28..113 4..103 9..136 14..132 19..149 24..175 29..102 5..115 10..174 15..109 20..168 25..168 30..116 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON SEPTEMBER 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON MARCH 2023 F10.7sep = 155.74 F*10.7mar= 154.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON SEPTEMBER 2023, AND SMOO- THES ON MARCH 2023 Ap sep =14.4 Ap*mar = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25.09 - 01.10.2023 Forecast on 02 - 09.10.2023 Carrington Rotation 2275-2276 (03,75.09-01.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (7.0 - 6.75 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=80+27/-19 (Wn= 133+46/-31). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND UP 5 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 3 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 103 - CLASS C, AND 43 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TY- PE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 28.09 0858 0907 0911 S19E66L334 M1.2/SF 4.3E-03 13450 30.09 1616 1635 1649 N11E66L300 M1.2 13451 01.10 0110 0132 0149 N10E61L300 M2.5 2.8E-02 13451 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N55L020 N45L042 N25L039 N30L012 2.1% 1.10 2 - SD0,HINOôORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 23.09/0440 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 03.10. ------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 OCTOBER Wus 164 179 138 109 102 106 136 F10.7 170 165 156 148 155 159 161 èbcg ó1.5 ó1.2 ó1.0 ó1.0 ó1.0 C1.3 c1.3 GOES Sp 940 925 835 640 570 580 580 msh N 2 1 1 1 3 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+6 1.1E+7 7.4E+7 5.1E+7 8.9å+7 7.5å+7 1.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 765 3753 1186 3085 2212 454 pfU Ap 25 27 14 5 11 8 8 nô Dst -66 -55 -16 nô KIOTO Amsc 21 20 11 3 7 12 11 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10MeV: to-24.09/0330 UT; max 2.26 pfu-24.09/15; te-25/09; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 27.09/1246 UT AND OBSERVED 127-30.09. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=75, dur=15 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MODERATE (G1, Ams= 46, dur= 28 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA NOTED AT THE END OF THE DAY 24.09 AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE (SI- 2043 UT, 129 nT). MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=38, dur=12 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND A 6-HOUR SUB STORM OF INTENSITY G1 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA REGISTERED ON 26.09. THE SOURCE OF BOTH DISTURBANCES IS THE DOUBLE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 22.09. ON THE OTHER DAYS, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON FLARE EVENTS AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov