25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 07.09.2023 Forecast on 08 - 16.10.2023 Carrington Rotation 2276 ( 01.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.7 - 6.4 deg) (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=090+12/-7 (Wn= 150+20/-12). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND UP 5 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 1 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 73 - CLASS C, 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 33 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 02.10 1235 1246 1258 N20E65L274 M1.9/1N 1.5E-02 13455 07.10 1757 1806 1810 S10E39L233 M1.7/SB 5.1E-03 13460 II/1|598 CME/1948 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 05.10 1846 1911 EPL 0.15 06.10 1018 >1405 S07E18L242 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L269 S02L276 S30L261 S20L249 3.8% 11.10 3 ííâ SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 19.09/00 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 12.10. ------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 OCTOBER Wus 146 150 151 170 138 145 F10.7 158 154 155 156 155 157 èbcg ó1.1 B8.8 ÷7.4 ÷8.5 ÷8.5 B9.8 GOES Sp 810 530 630 580 460 490 msh N 3 1 1 2 1 IMF - + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+7 2.1E+7 2.6E+6 8.2E+6 1.1å+7 1.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 283 1297 1406 368 439 324 pfU Ap 29 46 16 9 7 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 19 29 14 9 7 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT OBSERVED 5.10 (fluctuation). NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SUBSTORM (G1, dur=6 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER, WAS NOTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 5.10. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA 3-hour SUBSTORM G0 NOTED AT END 4.10. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov