25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 15.10.2023 Forecast on 16 - 23.10.2023 Carrington Rotation 2276 (01.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.4 - 6.0 deg) (S30 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=090+12/-7 (Wn= 150+20/-12). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AND UP 5 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 3 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 73 - CLASS C, 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 52 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (halo) AND 4 - TYPE II (angu- lar width 90 - 180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.10 0155 0209 0222 N12W63L300 M1.6 1.8E-02 13452 10.10 1208 1217 1229 N09W69L300 M2.3/SF 2.0E-02 13452 12.10 0450 0525 0458 N17W88L299 M1.1 7.7E-03 13451 CME/1948 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 09.10 1411 N28W48L200 >5 12.10 1200 NW >10 CME/1624 14.10 0230 N40W30L148 >5 CME/0506 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L269 S02L276 S30L261 S20L249 3.8% 11.10 3 ííâ SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 19.09/00 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 22.10. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 ïëôñâòø Wus 149 129 120 149 126 091 100 092 F10.7 157 166 164 158 157 140 148 145 èbcg ÷9.5 ó1.1 ó1.2 ó1.2 ó1.4 B8.1 ÷6.2 ÷5.7 GOES Sp 570 495 560 805 580 440 490 510 msh N 2 1 1 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 5.1å+6 3.4E+6 1.4E+6 3.9E+6 5.5å+6 2.2å+6 1.2å+6 1.6å+6 GOES Ie>2 273 279 219 263 180 185 136 pfU Ap 6 7 3 2 2 13 6 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 8 3 3 3 11 8 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov