25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM] Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.10.2023 Forecast on 23 - 30.10.2023 Carrington Rotations 2276-2277 (01,02.10-28,31.10.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (5.9 - 5.3 deg) (S30 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW (19,21,22.10) LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=037+37/-14 (Wn= 061+41/-22). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP SEVEN SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVEL. 36 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS C, 32 - CLASS B, 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 44 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (HALO), 1- TYPE III (angular width 180- 270 deg) AND 4-TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 16.10 1039 1218 N13E42L106 >10 13467 CMEII/1136 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N50L091 N40L136 N29L106 N35L103 1.5% 21.10 2 ííS SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 17.09/2150 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 7.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 ïëôñâòø Wus 106 057 054 039 056 065 048 F10.7 144 137 135 129 126 123 119 èbcg ÷6.2 B5.8 B4.8 B4.9 B4.4 B4.5 ÷4.4 GOES Sp 430 440 330 220 180 160 090 msh N 1 1 1 IMF - -/+ + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+6 2.1E+6 1.7E+6 1.3E+6 1.9å+6 1.2å+6 1.8å+6 GOES Ie>2 124 166 154 118 183 104 154 pfU Ap 2 2 10 8 7 22 8 nô Dst -29 -82 -24 nô KIOTO Amsc - - 14 8 11 11 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. 9-h SUBSTORM (G0) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER MARKED DURING THE BORDER HOURS OF 10. 20-21/10, CONSEQUENCES OF PASSING EARTH THROUGH THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CORONAL HOLE. ON THE OTHER OF DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETT- LED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov