25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM] Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.10.2023 Forecast on 30.10 - 05.11.2023 Carrington Rotations 2276-2277 (01,02.10-28,31.10.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (5.2 - 4.7 deg) (S30 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM VERY LOW TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 029+13/-14 (Wn= 049+21/-24). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=070+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 39 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS C, 19-CLASS B, 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 48 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 26.10 2247 2340 2324 N20E88L334 M1.4 13472 II/II|961 CME/2314|961 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 22.10 <2238 NE-limb CME/2238 23.10 <0009 S-limb CME/0009 23.10 0922 1007 EPL 0.2/B.9A 26.10 2229 0101 N20E43L334 >8 M1.4 13472 CME/2314 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N45L017 N17L019 S15L013 N05L357 5.7% 29.10 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 25.10/1930 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 8.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 OCTOBER Wus 025 034 026 057 066 070 061 F10.7 122 121 126 126 128 128 135 èbcg ÷5.5 B5.5 B5.4 B5.9 B6.2 B5.o ÷5.8 GOES Sp 070 040 060 090 060 080 070 msh N 2 1 1 IMF - - -/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.8å+6 5.3E+6 7.2E+6 1.3E+6 6.9E+6 2.7å+6 3.3å+7 GOES Ie>2 189 166 291 158 307 287 1889 pfU Ap 2 3 3 21 10 17 26 nô Dst -33 -42 -48 -49 nô KIOTO Amsc 3 6 4 20 8 16 29 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 29.10/ 1520 AND OBSERVED 29.10. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE EXPECTED 30.10-04.11. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=27 nT, dur=21 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams= 29 nT, dur= 12 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA NOTED 26-27.10, FROM A CME (TYPE II ) A SMALL FLARE AT THE W-LIMB. THE 2nd MINOR MAGNE- TIC STORM (G1), ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOTH CENTERS, STAR- TED AT THE BORDER OF 28-29.10 AND CONTINUED CAT THE TIME OF RELEASE OF THE REVIEW, CAS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE EARTH'S PAS- SAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WINDC BY THE LARGE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. ON THE OTHER OF DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov