25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OKTOBER 2023 HAS MADE Woct = 59.6 99.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 40 MONTH (APRIL 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*apr = 73.6 122.7 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÍÁÒÔ = 72.7 121.2 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR OCTOBER 2023 (65 observatories): 1.. 86 6..120 11..189 16.. 88 21..189 26..140 2.. 83m 7..131 12..145 17.. 90 22..198í 27..131 3.. 92 8..117 13..129 18..126 23..195 28..113 4..103 9..136 14..132 19..149 24..175 29..102 5..115 10..174 15..109 20..168 25..168 30..116 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON OCTOBER 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON APRIL 2023 F10.7oct = 141.6 F*10.7apr= 156.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON OCTOBER 2023, AND SMOO- THES ON APRIL 2023 Ap oct =8.2 Ap*apr = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM] Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.10 - 05.11.2023 Forecast on 06 - 13.11.2023 Carrington Rotations 2277 (28,31.10.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (4.7 - 4.1 deg) (S28 - N34 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 058+12/-21 (Wn= 097+19/-35). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS FROM WHICH TWO WAS MIDDLE, AND UP 4 LOCALI- ZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. SIX FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 55 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS C, 19- CLASS B, 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 66 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 2 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE III (angular width 180-270 deg) AND FOUR (90-180), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.11 0607 0626 0649 S11E88L231 M1.1 9.9E-04 13477 01.11 1137 1226 1300 S09E88L231 M1.4 3.9E-02 13477 02.11 1218 1222 1226 S19W31L323 M1.6/SB 2.9E-03 13474 II/644 02.11 1908 1921 1928 S09E88L208 M1.0 6.7E-03 13480 05.02 1134 1143 1147 S09E52L208 M1.8/1N 4.9E-03 13480 05.02 1424 1432 1436 S09E51L208 M1.6 4.3E-03 13480 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 31.10 1918 S38E25L231 25 C3.7 13477 II/ CME/2124 03.11 0430 0510 N24W34L318 33 C3.3 13473 CMEIV/0530 03.11 1813 1853 NNE EPL 0.15 05.11 0628 0713 EPL 0.27 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N15L263 S15L285 S37L268 S20L248 7.6% 08.11 3 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 4.11/1200 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 13.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 30 31 01 02 03 04 81 îïñâòø Wus 122 121 126 113 106 095 061 F10.7 140 141 159 158 156 155 155 èbcg ÷7.0 B7.7 ó1.5 ó1.4 B9.1 B9.3 ÷9.6 GOES Sp 220 670 680 820 850 870 780 msh N 2 1 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 8.0å+7 6.8E+7 8.5E+7 1.1E+8 1.3E+8 1.6å+8 1.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 2102 1705 2117 2375 2847 2842 108 pfU Ap 11 7 8 7 2 12 62 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 8 - 5 2 14 58 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to 3.11/~04 UT; max 0.55 - 3/15; te 3/~15/ DSF+C3.3 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 29.10/ 1520 AND OBSERVED 29.10 -4.11. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE EXPECTED AFTER 04.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED UN- TIL THE MIDDLE OF DAY 5.09, WHEN A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM WAS RECORDED IN SPACE ENVIRONMENT WITH INTENSITY (G3) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G4) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA. AT THE TIME OF RELEASE OF THIS REVIEW THE STORM IS CONTINUING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE RESULT OF THE IMPACT OF TWO LARGE CON- SEQUENTIAL SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AT 3.11. IN THE GEOMAGNE- TIC FIELD THERE ARE TWO SUDDEN IMPULSES SI-5.11/0905 (24 nT) AND SI-5/1232 (27 nT) HAVE BEEN MARKED. NEXT WEEK 7-8.11 THE EARTH WILL ENTER A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM A LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF "-" POLARI- TY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov