25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.10 - 05.11.2023 Forecast on 06 - 13.11.2023 Carrington Rotations 2277 (28,31.10.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3.5 - 3.0 deg) (S29 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 052+6/-11 (Wn=083+10/16). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+20/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 86 FLARES OF X-RAY CLASS C, 3-CLASS B, 7 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 49 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (HALO), AND 3 OF TYPE II (an- gular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 11.11 1701 1729 1745 S18W58L231 M1.2/SF 2.0E-02 13477 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 06.11 0646 0718 ~SW-limb EPL 0.31 CMEII/0736 08.11 0700 0721 W-limb EPL 0.4 CME /0730 09.11 1115 S15W15L195 >5 C2.6 13480 CMEIV/1140 10.11 1900 S19W21L220 >10 C2.3 13484 CMEII/2000 10.11 2200 N40W12L176 >5 12.11 0920 N33W75L085 <5 CME /1012 12.11 1400 S16W61L099 >10 C1.5 13484 CME /1537 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.11/2020 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" EXPECTED 17.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 NOVEMBER Wus 067 074 092 093 093 085 078 F10.7 146 145 146 139 144 142 137 èbcg ÷9.2 B7.1 ÷7.8 ÷6.9 B7.6 B7.4 ÷8.4 GOES Sp 540 380 490 480 500 510 710 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+6 4.6E+7 4.8E+7 9.9E+7 1.6E+8 2.3å+8 1.3å+8 GOES Ie>2 130 1523 1232 2555 3914 4372 3687 pfU Ap 36 18 16 11 8 4 9 nô Dst -121 -63 -42 -36 nô KIOTO Amsc 40 17 19 11 6 3 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to 9.11/1530 max 2.73 pfu-10/00 te 11/~19; DSF+C2.6 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 7.10/1600 AND OBSERVED 7 - 12.11. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE EXPECTED 13-16.11. STRONG (G3, Ams= 75, dur= 27 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND SEVERE (G4, Ams= 79, dur= 21 h) MAGNETIC STORM ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA REGISTERED 5-6.11 AFTER THE AR- RIVAL OF 2 INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVES (SI- 5.11 /0810 UT) SI-5. 11/1232) FROM CONSECUTIVE FILAMENT EJECTIONS 3.11 (the length of one of them is 33 degrees - OUTSTANDING EVENT) https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/ssw/last_events-2023/last_events_ 20231106_1201/index.html. THE NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED (G1, Ams= 35, dur= 15 h) áóCORDING TO CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MODERATE (G2, Ams= 59, dur= 12 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA DUE TO THE TOTAL IMPACT OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTION 5.11 AND A HIGH-SPEED STREAM THE EARTH'S PASSAGE FROM THE LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL HOLE OF "-" POLARITY. ON THE OTHER DAYS, THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. DISTURBANCES FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTIONS 10-12.11 WILL PASS BY THE EARTH. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov