25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.11.2023 Forecast on 20 - 17.11.2023 Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 2.5 deg) (S29 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE- RIOD IS W=031+52/-15 (Wn=052+34/-36). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP SIX SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WILL W=080+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 110 -CLASS C, 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 59 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (HALO) AND 5 OF TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.11 2258 2305 2309 S20W75L205 M1.0/SN 13485 18.11 0537 0542 0550 N23E89L344 M1.2 6.1E-03 13490 18.11 1634 1644 1654 N16E89L344 M1.1 13490 18.11 2226 2233 2240 N14E89L344 M1.0 13490 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 16.11 0339 0402 S09W50L161 EPL 0.25 C1.4 13486 CME/0336 17.11 0859 1212 S34W55L039 20 B.8A 18.11 S30E45L 20 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N28L111 N10L114 N02L104 N19L094 1.9% 21.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 18.11/0700 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 îïñâòø Wus 085 086 041 028 026 039 051 F10.7 134 124 119 118 120 127 140 èbcg ÷7.4 B9.4 ÷8.9 ÷8.6 B7.1 C1.5 ó1.6 GOES Sp 560 580 210 130 180 340 400 msh N 1 1 1 1 1 1 IMF -/+ + + + + +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 3.7å+6 2.3E+6 3.0E+6 7.2E+6 1.1E+7 1.3å+7 5.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 592 181 101 277 340 399 250 pfU Ap 14 4 12 12 2 1 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 5 12 7 4 3 3 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov