25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.11.2023
Forecast on 20 - 17.11.2023
Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 2.5 deg)
(S29 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO
VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE-
RIOD IS W=031+52/-15 (Wn=052+34/-36). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC
OBSERVED UP SIX SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH
HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL W=080+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY
CLASS M, 110 -CLASS C, 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 59 CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (HALO) AND 5 OF TYPE
II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
14.11 2258 2305 2309 S20W75L205 M1.0/SN 13485
18.11 0537 0542 0550 N23E89L344 M1.2 6.1E-03 13490
18.11 1634 1644 1654 N16E89L344 M1.1 13490
18.11 2226 2233 2240 N14E89L344 M1.0 13490
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
16.11 0339 0402 S09W50L161 EPL 0.25 C1.4 13486 CME/0336
17.11 0859 1212 S34W55L039 20 B.8A
18.11 S30E45L 20
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH + N28L111 N10L114 N02L104 N19L094 1.9% 21.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 18.11/0700 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.11.
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NOVEMBER 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 опсвтш
Wus 085 086 041 028 026 039 051
F10.7 134 124 119 118 120 127 140
иbcg ч7.4 B9.4 ч8.9 ч8.6 B7.1 C1.5 у1.6 GOES
Sp 560 580 210 130 180 340 400 msh
N 1 1 1 1 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + +/- - DSCOVR
Е>2 3.7е+6 2.3E+6 3.0E+6 7.2E+6 1.1E+7 1.3е+7 5.9е+6 GOES
Ie>2 592 181 101 277 340 399 250 pfU
Ap 14 4 12 12 2 1 3 nф
Dst nф KIOTO
Amsc 14 5 12 7 4 3 3 nф IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
NOT OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH е>2
MeV BE NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED
AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov