25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.12.2023 Forecast on 11 - 18.12.2023 Carrington Rotations 2278 (28,62.11.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (0.7 - -0.2 deg) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MODERATE LEVELS. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 086+21/-16 (Wn=132+32/-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 7 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MODERATE LEVELS. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WILL W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 10 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 117-CLASS C, 7 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 104 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 7 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 05.12 0639 0644 0648 N18E87L142 M1.5/1F 5.0E-03 13513 05.12 2059 2110 2117 N20E70L142 M1.0/1N 13513 05.12 2117 2120 2125 N20E72L142 M1.4 13513 06.12*0530 0541 0552 N18E66L142 M2.1/2N 1.4E-02 13513 06.12 2126 2144 2155 N20E55L142 M2.3/1B 13513 08.12 2257 2307 2314 S22W49L213 M5.4/1N 13511 CME/0136 09.12 0928 0955 1006 S21W54L213 M1.5/SF 1.3E-02 13511 EPL 09.12 1303 1319 1337 S21W66L213 M1.0 1.5E-02 13511 10.12 0342 0353 0358 S21W66L213 M2.3/SF 8.8E-03 13511 10.12 0342 0353 0358 S21W66L213 M2.3/SF 8.8E-03 13511 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 06.12*0418 0638 ~N15E15L ~20 sigmoid https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/06dec23/sigmoid.gif 06.12 1547 1722 EPL 0.15 07.12 0147 ~0300 N17E37L 13 CME/0248 07.12 1936 SW >10 CME/2124 08.12 0100 N40E50L 40 CME/0428 08.12 0507 S29E05L 6 09.12 0910 1028 EPL 0.25 13511 09.12 0910 1048 EPL 0.21/B.9A *Ó×ÑÚÁÎÎÙÅ ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N27L277 S35L317 S35L307 S20L252 7.9% 4-5.12 4 MMS SDO, HINOTORI CH + S02L204 S30L209 S45L204 S05L184 2.8% 13-14.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 1.12/1315 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" EXPECTED 11.12. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 DECEMBER Wus 123 133 125 121 125 125 120 F10.7 138 142 130 135 133 128 127 èbcg ÷7.1 ÷9.7 ÷6.3 ÷8.3 B9.6 B9.6 B7.6 GOES Sp 660 800 780 710 690 600 550 msh N 1 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+6 2.2E+6 2.5E+6 4.1E+7 6.6E+7 5.0å+7 4.0å+7 GOES Ie>2 134 297 897 1064 1398 1133 839 pfU Ap 9 14 11 4 4 1 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 14 12 5 6 2 3 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV STARTED ON 8.12/1200 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON 8-9.12. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY BE EXPECTED AFTER 14.11 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET. THE PASSAGE OF THE EARTH'S HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF A GIANT CORONAL HO- LE OF "-" POLARITY CAUSED ONLY SEPARATE PERIODS OF ACTIVE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION IN NEAR-EARTH SPACE ON 5-6.12. NEXT WEEK, 13-14.12, THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF “+” POLARITY. PRO- BABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov