25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.12.2023 Forecast on 18 - 25.12.2023 Carrington Rotations 2278-2279 (24.62.11-21.12.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (0.4 - -1.2 deg) (S30 - N30 is zone of geoefficiency) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MODERATE LEVELS. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 079+29/-26 (Wn=118+45/-38). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 7 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MODERATE LEVELS. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WILL W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS X2.8, 5 -CLASS M (3 LARGE), 85 -CLASS C, 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 61 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (360 deg) AND 3 A TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.12 0711 0744 0801 N03W48L131 M5.8/SF 6.6E-02 13514 14.12 1329 1348 1408 N04W50L131 M2.3 3.2E-02 13514 14.12 1647 1702 1836 N04W53L131 X2.8/1B 1.9E-01 13514 II/2|1218 IV/2 CMEIV/1724 15.12 0703 0715 0723 N03W61L131 M6.3/1N 1.6E-02 13514 IV/2 CMEIV/1724 15.12 0723 0734 0824 N03W61L131 1N/M6.9 7.8E-02 13514 17.12 2008 2017 2021 N09W89L131 M1.1 3.9E-03 13514 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 14.12 0600 0634 SW-limb EPL 0.25|B.9A C1.8 13514 óíåII/0712 14.12 1130 N25E20 >10 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecrafts CH + S02L204 S30L209 S45L204 S05L184 2.8% 13-14.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI CH - N30L100 N15L102 N05L108 N12L072 4.3% 16-17.12 2 - SDO, HINOTORI CH - S02L204 S30L209 S45L204 S05L184 2.8% 13-14.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.12/0000 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" EXPECTED 28.12. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 äåëáâòø Wus 087 080 114 126 130 163 129 F10.7 126 126 135 155 144 149 155 èbcg ÷6.2 ÷7.0 ÷9.8 C1.4 C1.3 C1.3 C1.3 GOES Sp 360 240 580 940 820 700 400 msh N 1 1 1 1 4 1 IMF - + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.8å+7 1.5E+7 6.4E+6 1.2E+6 4.0E+6 2.1å+6 1.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 1338 1116 110 122 367 197 147 pfU Ap 1 7 7 15 7 14 18 nô Dst -21 -81 -34 nô KIOTO Amsc 2 7 17 13 16 15 25 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>1000 pfu. Pr >10 MeV: to-14.12/18 UT; 1 max 5.8 pfu 15/1650 UT; G1 2 max 13.9 pfu; te-16/24 UT te=17/20UT A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV STARTED ON 8.12/1200 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON 8-9, 11-12.12. NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY BE EXPECTED AFTER 18.11 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE PASSAGE OF THE EARTH OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE LARGE TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF "-" POLARITY ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ON 15-16.12 CAUSED IN ENIRONMENT THERE ARE ONLY 6-hour SUBSTORMS OF G1 INTENSITY. 16 - 17.12 A DISTURBANCE CAME TO THE EARTH FROM LARGE FLARES 14-15.12. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=36, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND 9-HOURS SUB- STORM OF INTENSITY G1 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED ON 17. 12). ON NEXT WEEK 16-17.12 THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF “+” POLARITY. PROBABI- LITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov