ðÒÏÇÎÏÚ óÏÌÎÅÞÎÏÊ áËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ
2024/10/07
25 ãéëì óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé,
÷åô÷ø òïóôá: æáúá íáëóéíõíá
óòåäîåíåóñþîïå íåöäõîáòïäîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá óåîôñâòø
2024 Ç.
WÓÅÎ = 141.4 94.0 (× ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ)
þôï äá³ô äìñ 51 íåóñãá (2024, íáòô) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 25 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê
áëôé÷îïóôé óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî
W*ÍÁÒ = 141.3 94.0 (× ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ)
W*ÆÅ× = 136.8 91.0 (× ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ)
ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ
ÏÔÎÏÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ
ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ.
[åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ,
ÂÌÉÚËÉÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÙÍ, ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ ÕÍÎÏÖÅÎÉÅÍ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k=0.665]
îáþáìï 25 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé-ñî÷áòø 2020 Ç., W*min=1.8 (1.2Ó);
÷îéíáîéå!!! - ÔÏÞËÁ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ ÃÉËÌÁ - ÜÔÏ ÐÏÓÌÅÄÎÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà ×ÅÔ×É ÓÐÁÄÁ,
É ÐÏÔÏÍÕ ÏÞÅÒÅÄÎÏÊ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÊ ÃÉËÌ ÎÁÞÉÎÁÅÔÓÑ ÓÏ ÓÌÅÄÕÀÝÅÇÏ ÍÅÓÑÃÁ ÐÏÓÌÅ
ÔÏÞËÉ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ.
æáúá íéîéíõíá 25 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - 2020 01 - 2021 10;
÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 25 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - íáòô-éàîø 2024 Ç.,
W*max=135-150 (90-100 × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ);
ëïîåã 25 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2031 Ç.
åöåäîå÷îïå íåöäõîáòïäîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá óåîôñâòø
2024 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 63 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê:
1..168 6..177 11..147 16..132 21..124 26..136
2..182M 7..170 12..132 17..133 22..131 27..156
3..175 8..157 13..109 18..102 23..122 28..155
4..171 9..151 14..107 19..105 24..133 29..149
5..171 10..141 15.. 97m 20..115 25..128 30..165
óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10.7 ÓÍ (2800 MHz)
úá óåîôñâòø 2024 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá íáòô 2024 Ç.
F10.7ÓÅÎ = 196.7 F*10.7ÍÁÒ = 175.3
óòåäîåíåóñþîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá óåîôñâòø 2024 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá íáòô 2024 Ç
ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå
áÒ ÓÅÎ = 15.4 áÒ*ÍÁÒ = 11.1
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25 ãéëì óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé,
÷åô÷ø òïóôá: æáúá íáëóéíõíá
ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê
é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï
îá ðåòéïä 30.09.2024 - 06.10.2024 Ç.
é ðòïçîïú îá 07.10.2024 - 14.10.2024 Ç.
ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2289(19,60.09.2024)
úåíìñ ÷îå ðìïóëïóôé óïìîåþîïçï üë÷áôïòá
(BÏ: (+6.8 - +6.4) ÇÒÁÄ)
(ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S23 - N37)
ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ÷ùóïëïí é ïþåîø ÷ùóïëïí õòï÷îñè.
òáóþ³ôîïå óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå íåöäõîáòïäîïçï ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá
ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W= 184+45/-34 (WÓ=122+30/-23). îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìïóø
15 çòõðð ðñôåî (AR13842 - ïþåîø âïìøûïê ðìïýáäé, AR13844, AR13848 - âïìøûïê, AR13849
- óòåäîåê), éú îéè 11 îáèïäéìéóø ÷ àöîïí ðïìõûáòéé.
îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá óòåäîåí é ÷ùóïëïí
õòï÷îñè. óòåäîåå ïöéäáåíïå úîáþåîéå þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá ðåòéïä W=120+40/-40.
÷ ôåþåîéå îåäåìé ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ÷ùóïëïí õòï÷îå. úá ðåòéïä îáâìàäáìéóø
2 ÷óðùûëé òåîôçåîï÷óëïçï ëìáóóá X, 34 ÷óðùûëé ëìáóóá M, éú îéè 2 âïìøûéè (>M5),
68 ÷óðùûåë ëìáóóá C, 6 ÷ùâòïóï÷ óïìîåþîùè ÷ïìïëïî é 70 ëïòïîáìøîùè ÷ùâòïóï÷ ÷åýåóô÷á,
éú ëïôïòùè 3 âùìé ôéðá II (ÕÇÌÏ×ÁÑ ÛÉÒÉÎÁ 90-180 ÇÒÁÄ)
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÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 (É ÏÔÄÅÌØÎÙÅ ÚÎÁÞÉÍÙÅ ×ÓÐÙÛÅÞÎÙÅ ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ ÍÅÎØÛÅÇÏ ÂÁÌÌÁ):
to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) AO RII/IV CME/to
ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 km/s
20240930 2337 2359 0023 S18E30L177 M7.6 1.3E-01 13842
20241001 1441 1452 1504 S11W09L209 M1.0/1N 8.6E-03 13843
20241001 1845 1917 2016 S17E18L177 M1.5/SF 3.3E-02 13842
20241001 2158 2220 2344 S16E16L177 X7.1/2B 5.2E-01 13842 II/3|1246 CME/2312
20241002 0128 0152 0218 S18E15L177 M1.1 13842
20241002 0231 0239 0243 N12E06L192 M1.2/SF 6.3E-03 13841
20241002 0530 0538 0549 S17E12L177 M3.6/SF 2.2E-02 13842 II/2|1144 CME/0624
20241002 0619 0624 0629 N10E79L116 M1.1/SF 4.8E-03 13848
20241002 1322 1338 1419 S18E07L177 M3.2/1N 4.6E-02 13842
20241002*1958 2015 2027 S18E03L177 M1.4/2N 3.6E-03 13842
20241002*2027 2051 2148 S16E03L177 M3.3/2N 5.9E-02 13842
20241003 0223 0234 0250 N13W07L192 M1.1/SF 4.6E-03 13841
20241003 0322 0341 0359 S18W00L177 M1.5 2.8E-02 13842
20241003 0810 0828 0830 N12W09L192 M1.5/SF 7.2E-03 13841
20241003 0830 0836 0841 S16W04L177 M1.5/SF 1.1E-02 13842
20241003 1208 1218 1227 S15W03L177 X9.0 4.6E-01 13842 II/2|537 CME/1248
IV/1
20241003 1718 1721 1727 S14W27L198 M1.5/SF 8.4E-03 13844
20241003 2009 2028 2129 S07W45L209 M6.7/2B 7.8E-02 13843 II/2|1241 CME/2036
20241003 2139 2141 2213 S14W26L198 M2.3/SN 9.7E-03 13844
20241003 2325 2328 2332 S10W00L177 M1.1/SN 3.3E-03 13842 II/2|463
20241004 0009 0017 0025 N14W20L192 M1.2/SF 1.1E-02 13841
20241004 0436 0455 0514 S18W16L177 M4.0/1N 4.9E-02 13842 CME/0512
20241004 1058 1103 1120 S10W63L234 M1.2 1.1E-02 13836
20241004 2055 2104 2118 S14W42L198 M1.1/SF 1.1E-02 13844
20241004 2204 2211 2231 N17W82L242 M1.2/1N 8.1E-03 13845
20241005 0007 0012 0019 S14W21L177 M1.0/SF 6.6E-03 13842
20241005 0818 0827 0837 S15W27L177 M1.4 4.2E-03 13842
20241005 0837 0844 0850 S15W23L177 M1.6 1.3E-02 13842
20241005 2033 2040 2046 S18W39L177 M1.1 7.6E-03 13842
20241005 2310 2320>2331 S15W35L177 M2.4/SF 1.8E-02 13842
20241006 0009 0018 0029 S23W34L177 M1.0 1.1E-02 13842
20241006 0129 0147 0217 S13W56L198 M1.1 13844
20241006 1514 1521 1526 S14W66L198 M1.3/SN 6.0E-03 13844
20241006 1641 1645 1651 S16W46L177 M1.0 5.5E-03 13842
20241006 1852 1859 1919 S16W47L177 M1.4/SF 6.5E-03 13842
20241006 2052 2119 2203 S13W56L190 M1.6/SF 4.0E-02 13839
* - ÎÅÓËÏÌØËÏ ÒÅÎÔÇÅÎÏ×ÓËÉÈ ×ÓÐÌÅÓËÏ× × ÏÄÎÏÊ ÏÐÔÉÞÅÓËÏÊ ×ÓÐÙÛËÅ
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÷ùâòïóù óïìîåþîùè ÷ïìïëïî:
Bó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AO CMEÔÉÐ/to
20240930 1039 N32W10L227 CME
20240930 1328 S30E40L175 CME
20241003 0449 N26E59L121 10 CME/0748
20241003 0909 S29W19L197 13 CME/0948
20241004 <0424 SW quadrant CMEII/0424
20241005 <1203 <1407 SW limb 0.18 CME/1336
* - ×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ (DSF, EPL)
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îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ ÷ äéáðáúïîå ïô îéúëïçï äï
÷ùóïëïçï õòï÷îñ.
îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø çåïüææåëôé÷îùå ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù
ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé:
ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅÃ å ËÏÎÅÃ S ËÏÎÅÃ W ËÏÎÅÃ Sch ïëð R G KA
CH - N08L288 S08L275 S11L277 N06L290 0.5% 29-30.09 1 - SDO, HINODE
CH + N04L161 S03L156 S10L162 S07L169 0.6% 08-09.10 1 - SDO, HINODE
CH*- N74L046 N65L036 N29L095 N60L106 2.6% 13-14.10 6 A SDO, HINODE
* - ÎÉÚËÁÑ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ, ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÙ ÔÏÌØËÏ ÓÕÂÂÕÒÉ Ó ÄÌÉÔ. <6 Þ.
Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ
ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÅÒÏÑÔÎÏÇÏ
ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ×ÏÚÒÁÓÔ × ÏÂÏÒÏÔÁÈ óÏÌÎÃÁ; G(0-5)-
ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒÏÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕ-
Ý£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ.
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ó 29.09/1305 UT úåíìñ îáèïäéìáóø ÷ "-" óåëôïòå íåöðìáîåôîïçï íáçîéôîïçï ðïìñ,
óìåäõàýåå ðåòåóåþåîéå óåëôïòîïê çòáîéãù "-/+" ïöéäáåôóñ 8-9 ïëôñâòñ.
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óåîôñâòø 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 ïëôñâòø
Wus 150 196 194 229 180 173 167
F10.7 214 245 274 312 291 277 265
Xbcg C2.0 C2.7 C3.4 C6.1 C4.6 C5.0 C3.8 GOES
Sp 580 840 1360 1780 3520 3420 2640 msh
N 1 3 1 0 1 0 1
IMF sign - - - - - - +/- DSCOVR,ACE
e>2 4.4E+6 4.1E+6 6.1E+6 5.4E+6 2.1E+6 2.4E+6 5.8E+6 GOES
Ie>2 218 222 257 268 160 142 640 pfu
Ap 9 5 6 7 8 6 13 nT
Dst -29 nT KIOTO
Amsc 10 6 7 7 8 7 15 nT IZMIRAN
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IÅ>2 - ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV × pfu (e/(cm2-sr-s)) × ÔÅÞÅÎÉÅ ÓÕÔÏË
(ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >=1000 pfu);
e>2 - ÎÁËÏÐÌÅÎÎÙÊ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ
ëá GOES × e/(cm2-sr-day).
ðïôïëï÷ üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 MeV ÷ùûå õòï÷îñ 1000 pfu îå îáâìàäáìïóø.
îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îá çåïóéîèòïîîïê ïòâéôå ðòå÷ùûåîéñ õòï÷îñ 1000 pfu ðïôïëïí
üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 MeV îå ïöéäáåôóñ.
30 óåîôñâòñ ÷ òåúõìøôáôå ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ ÷ùóïëïóëïòïóôîïçï ðïôïëá ïô ïôòéãáôåìøîïê
ôòáîóüë÷áôïòéáìøîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê äùòù îáâìàäáìïóø õóéìåîéå çåïíáçîéôîïê áëôé÷îïóôé
äï õòï÷îñ óõââõòé (G0*, ÄÌÉÔ=3 Þ ðï äáîîùí ãåîôòï÷ ÷ âïõìäåòå é ðïôóäáíå).
6 ïëôñâòñ ÷ òåúõìøôáôå ðïóìåäï÷áôåìøîïçï ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ îåóëïìøëéè óíå, ðòïéúïûåäûéè
ðåòéïä 1-3 ïëôñâòñ îáþáìáóø íáìáñ íáçîéôîáñ âõòñ (G1 ðï äáîîùí ãåîôòï÷ ÷ âïõìäåòå é
ðïôóäáíå). îá ÷òåíñ ÷ùðõóëá ôåëõýåçï ïâúïòá âõòñ ðòïäïìöáåôóñ. ÷ ïóôáìøîïå ÷òåíñ
çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá íåîñìáóø ïô óðïëïêîïê äï óìáâï÷ïúíõýåîîïê.
* G0 - ÐÉËÏ×ÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÅ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÊ ÁËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÅÅ Kp=4.
7-9 ïëôñâòñ ïöéäáåôóñ ðï÷ùûåîîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø äï õòï÷îñ íáçîéôîïê âõòé ÷
òåúõìøôáôå ðòïäïìöáàýåçïóñ ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ óíå ïô ÷óðùûåë í6.7 ïô 03.10/2028, í4.0 ïô
04.10/0455, ÷ùâòïóá ÷ïìïëîá 04.10/0424 é ÷ùóïëïóëïòïóôîïçï ðïôïëá ïô ðïìïöéôåìøîïê
ôòáîóüë÷áôïòéáìøîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê äùòù. ÷ï ÷ôïòïê ðïìï÷éîå îåäåìé îå éóëìàþåîù íáçîéô-
îùå âõòé éú-úá ÷ùóïëïçï ÷óðùûåþîïçï ðïôåîãéáìá çåïüææåëôé÷îï òáóðïìïöåîîùè áëôé÷îùè
ïâìáóôåê. 13-14 ïëôñâòñ ÷ïúíïöîï ðï÷ùûåîéå çåïíáçîéôîïê áëôé÷îïóôé ÷ òåúõìøôáôå
÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ ÷ùóïëïóëïòïóôîïçï ðïôïëá ïô ïôòéãáôåìøîïê ÷ùóïëïûéòïôîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê
äùòù ÷ óå÷åòîïí ðïìõûáòéé.
ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá
âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷,
âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/,
éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru.
÷.î.éÛËÏ×, î.é.ìÅÂÅÄÅ×, í.î.ìÅÂÅÄÅ×
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