Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2022/08/01

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

 THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2022 HAS MADE 
              Wjuly =55          90.4(in new system)  
THAT GIVES FOR 25 MONTH (2022, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT  
25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*jan. = 36        60.1 - in new system
              W*dec. = 33.4      55.7 - in new system

 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE  - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;

PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JULY 2022 
(67 observatories): 
1.. 58    6.. 82   11..125   16..152M  21..109   26.. 91  31.. 34m
2.. 64    7.. 95   12..114   17..140   22.. 99   27.. 58
3.. 55    8.. 87   13..117   18..126   23.. 97   28.. 42
4.. 59    9.. 93   14..123   19..110   24.. 79   29.. 43
5.. 78   10..106   15..134   20..133   25.. 86   30.. 43
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) 
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 
JULY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, JANUARY     
               F10.7july = XXX          F*10.7jan.= XXX

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2022, 
AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JANUARY
               Ap july= XXX                Ap*jan. = xxx
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                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 25 - 31.07.2022,
                     Forecast on 01 - 08.08.2022 
               Carrington Rotations 2260 (21,7.07.2022)
               Earth out of ecliptic (-5.4 - -5.1) deg. 
               (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW 
LEVELS. ESTIMATED  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR PERIOD IS W= 
031+29/-15 (Wn= 053+47/-26). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC  PASSED UP 
FROM 9 NONACTIVE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS,  THREE LOCALIZED ON THE 
SOUTH HEMISPHERE. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  EXPECTED ON THE LOW  AND VERY LOW 
LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN  
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+30/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. 5 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS 
"C", 63-LASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 38 CORONAL 
MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WICH WAS ON TYPE II AND ONE - TYPE III, 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CME/to
25.07 >0046 >1338 S24W42L309       70        13065
27.07 >0042 >1304 N16W65L          10
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
CH -  S12L265 S15L66 S40L233 S28L221 3.6%  2.08  1  -  SDO HINOTORY
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE - the date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's en-
vironment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 19.07/0125 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 5.08.

---------------------------------------------------------------- 
JULY      25     26     27     28     29     30     31  JULY
Wus      100    078    052    050    040    027    038
F10.7    102    099    098    093    093    091    094
bcg    2.1   1.8   1.6   1.4   1.2   1.1   1.2  GOES
Sp       280    290    210    130    180    170    180  msh   
N         1      1             1                      
IMF       -      -     +/-     -      -      -      -   DSCOVR   
>2   5.1+7 4.1E+7 3.0E+7 2.3E+7 2.1E+7 2.6E+7 8.8E+6  GOES
Ie>2    1247   1229   1277   1004    759   1067   1374  pfu
Ap        6      8      9      7      4      7      11  n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      6      8      12     6      5      8      13  n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 25.07/1525 UT AND OBSERVED 25-31.07. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT MAY EXPECTED AFTER 4.08.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED.

 NEXT WEEK RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS CAN BE 2-3.08, WHEN 
THE EARTH  WILL PASSED  THE HIGH SPEED STEAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" 
POLARITY OF SOUTH HEMISPERE. PROBABILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS 
~60%.

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov