Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2024/02/04

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                 THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM      

 THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2024 HAS MADE   
               Wdec =  81.8        123.0(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 43 MONTH (JULY 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR 
CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
           W*july   =  82.7          124.3 - in new system 
           W*june  =   83.1          125.0 - in new system        
 
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots  and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link).  
 Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system 
~close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.665.
 
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE III - VI 2024 - Wmax=90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;
   
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2024
(63 observatories) : 
1.. 54m   6..144   11..179   16..131   21..154   26.. 79   31.. 94
2.. 66    7..164   12..179   17..146   22..164   27.. 63
3.. 57    8..162   13..186M  18..129   23..144   28.. 68
4.. 98    9..148   14..157   19..141   24..122   29.. 70
5..117   10..164   15..140   20..132   25.. 92   30.. 70

  THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) 
ON JANUARY 2024, AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2023    
                F10.7jan = 167.0         F*10.7july= 159.2
   THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2024, AND  
SMOOTHES ON JULY 2023 2023                
                Ap jan=5.6             Ap*july = xxx
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   REVIEW OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA, 
                AND THEIR IMPACTS ON NEAR-EARTH SPACE
                         on 01 - 31.01.2024
     Carrington Rotations 2279-2280 (21.12.2023-18,27.01 2024)
               Earth out of ecliptic (-3 - -5.9 deg) 
                (S35 - N28 is zone of geoefficiency)
                              
 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO LOW 
LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 35 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 
INCLUDING ONE BIG AND TWO MEDIUM SIZES AND UP 8 LOCALIZED ON THE 
SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. 32 FLARE WERE OF X-RAY
CLASS M AND 441- CLASS C, 12 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 221 CORO-
NAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONT OF THEM WAS TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg),
18 - TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2
20231231 1844 1912 1940 N04E73L152 M1.0            13536                   
20231231 2136 2155 2208 N04E73L152 X5.0/3B         13536  RIV/2 CMEII/2200 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
20240101 0833 0854 0904 N04E70L152 M2.3/1N 2.5E-02 13536                  
20240101 1154 1225 1235 N04E69L152 M4.7    4.4E-02 13536
20240102 1802	1846 1830	N05E58L152 M1.2	           13536     
20240104_0108	0122 0116 N02E38L152*M1.1/2N 3.3E-03 13536          
20240104_0122	0213 0155 N04E38L152*2N/M3.9 6.9E-02 13536          
20240110 1239 1255 1305 S20E88L100 M1.4    1.6E-02   
20240110 2318 2328 2335 N22W77L177 M1.9/SF         13538
20240111 1244 1251 1255 N19W88L177 M1.3    5.7E-03 13538              
20240111 1749 1752 1759 N09W54L139 M1.5    6.7E-03 13539              
20240111 1908 1923 1949 N18W88L177 M1.2            13538   
20240112 0255 0258 0302 N18E19L064 M1.0/SN 3.0E-03 13547
20240122 0609 0622 0636 N29E27L287 M1.5/1N 1.8E-03 13559                
20240122 1913	19281924	N25E14L287 M1.1	           13559
20240122 1928 1932 1936 S16W28L325 M1.2    6.1E-03 13561                 
20240122 1943 1947 1953 S15W30L325 M2.0/1F 9.8E-03 13561                 
20240122 2114 2121 2132 S17W29L325 M3.4            13561                 
20240122 2136 2143 2158 S17W29L325 M1.6            13561                 
20240122 2219 2222 2226 S17W30L325 M2.1            13561
20240123 0309 0331 0338 N29E18L325 M5.1    4.1E-02 13561        CMEII/0348
20240123*0752 0811 0834 S17W36L139 M2.4/1F 6.0E-03 13559                  
20240123*0818 0822 0834 S19W37L325 1F/M2.3 6.0E-03 13561                   
20240123^1240	1303 1258 S17W37L325 M1.0	   6.3E-03 13561
20240123^1303 1308 1313 N30E13L139 M1.0    6.3E-03 13559                  
20240123 1445 1459 1505 S18W41l325 M1.3    1.3E-02 13561                  
20240123 1636 1640 1647 S17W39L325 M4.3    1.9E-02 13561        CMEII/1736?
20240123*1819	1846 1828 S17W43L325 M1.0	           13561 
20240123*1835 1844 1849 S16W43L325 M1.1    8.9E-03 13561                       
20240123 1957 2001 2005 S17W42L325 M1.0            13561  
20240124 0021 0038 0043 S17W43L325 M1.0    1.1E-02 13561                       
20240124 0131 0140 0153 S20W48L325 M2.6/SF 2.5E-02 13561                    
20240124 0518 0543 0600 S16W51L325 M1.4    1.7E-03 13561                       
20240124 2044 2058 2111 S17W58L325 M1.3            13561
20240129 0129	0140 0158	N30W62L139 M1.3/SF 1.1E-02 13559           
20240129 0354	0438 0456	N28W86L139 M6.8/SF 1.8E-01 13559 II/2|512 
                                                         IV/0424 CME
* two X-ray burst in one optical flare
^ Sympathetic flares 

DSF (EPL) to   te localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CMEtype/to
20240104  0230         NW quadrant
20240109 >1400         >SE-limb       >10               CME
20240109 >1400         S S21E17      40-50        13541 CME
20240110  0420 -0520     EPL          0.13   C7.0 13538
20240110  2028         E-limb b/s     >10               CME?
20240111               NE-quadrant    >10               CME
20240118  1200         N45E70L        ~10               CME
20240120  0848         S15E22L        >15    C3.5 13555 CMEIV/0912  
20240121  0000         N23E40                           CME  /0024
20240121  0752  0758       EPL      0.18/B.9A           CME?
20240121  1433         S32E58                           CME  /1600
20240122  0900         S35W09          25               CME         
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ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end  Sch   EE      R G  Spacecrafts 
CH - N10L245 S30L278 S33L263 S10L240 4.8% 01.01 6  SDO, HINOTORI
CH*- N50L224 N45L225 N35L262 N40L269 2.1% 02.01 1  -  SDO, HINOTORI
CH*- N70L237 N60L217 N28L247 N35L202 3.2% 28.01 2  -  SDO, HINOTORI
CH - S10L237 S33L257 S35L257 S10L227 2.8% 31.01 1  -  SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 IN JANUARY THE EARTH PASSED NTXT THE SECTOR BOUNDARIES OF THE INTER-
 PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS: 
 20240107 +/- 1753 UT;  20240115 -/+ 0945;  20240123  +/- 1940;   
-      -     -     -     -     -     -     -     -     -     -     -

Pr>10 MeV: 31.12/1500 UT; max1- 2.12 pfu  1.01/0030; 
                          max2- 4.64 pfu  2.01/0000;
                          max3- 8.23 pfu  3.01/0700;
                          max4- 9.31 pfu  3.01/1100;
                          max5-12.3       3.01/2150;
                          max6-20.1 pfu   4.01/0835;
                          max7-25 pfu     5.01/0035; t-09/18 
Pr>10 MeV: 21.01/2100 UT; max - 6.90 pfu 22.01/1400; t-24/20
Pr>10 MeV: 29.01/0300 UT; max -136   pfu 29.01/1800; te> 4.02 

A HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRONS WITH E>2 MeV NO
OBSERVED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov