Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2020/01/13

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 06 - 12.01.2020,
                Forecast on 13 - 20.01.2020,
          Carrington Rotation 2226 (06,38.01.2020)   
           Earth out of ecliptic (-1 -  -1.4) deg. 
              (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW, BUT WITH 
A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK  WAS 7-8 AND  11-12.01 (4 SPOTLESS DAYS 
IN THE 2020 - 10%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE 
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) 
FOR PERIOD W=4+4/-4 (Wn= 7+6/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISK TWO SMALL 
SUNSPOT GROUP, HIGH-ALTITUDE, WITH THE ORDER OF MAGNTTIC POLARI-
TIES 25th CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.   

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS AND TWO (6-7.01) CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
08.01 >1014   >2252 S42W16L310        3            12755
12.01 <0006     ?   N50WW40L228       7
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH*+  S05L040 S15L057 S28L030 S12L010  5.5% 07.01  8  -  SDO, SOHO...
CH*+  N35L233 N15L242 N25L239 N25L218  2.0% 14.01  1  -  SDO, SOHO...
* - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 11.01/0830 UT, THE SIGN OF SECTOR IMF IS EXPECTED UNSTABLE AND CHAN-
GES FREQUENTLY, BUT IN THE MIDDLE IT REMAINS WITH THE "+". IN THE FOLLOW-
ING WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT NEXT SECTOR BOU-
DARY BE EXPECTED 1.02.

----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  06     07     08     09     10     11     12    JANUARY
Wus     011    000    000    014    011    000    000
F10.7   071    072    074    074    073    074    072 
bcg  A<1.0  A<1.0  A<1.0   A1.3   A1.0  A<1.0  A<1.0   GOES
Sp      010    000    000    030    010    000    000   msh   
N                             1                    
IMF     +/-     -      -      -      -     -/+     +    DSCOVR   
>2  4.4E+6 9.8E+5 4.3E+6 7.3E+6 1.3E+7 2.6E+7 2.2E+7   GOES
Ie>2                         273    617   1223    979   pfu 
Ap       9      5      6      12     7      6      4    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     10     7      9      12     8      7      5    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS 11.
01 HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT-
LED ALL DAYS EXEPT 9.01  WHEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WAS PLANETARY 
MINOR SUBSTORM (G0) duration <3 h. HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 
WILL OBSERVED,BUT IS POSSIBLE ACTIVE CONDITION AT 14.01 FOLLOWED BY A 
CIR FROM POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov