Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/05/25

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 18 - 24.05.2020,
                 Forecast on 25.05 - 01.06.2020,
  Carrington Rotations 2230, 2231 (24,65.04; 21,88.05.2020)   
              Earth out of ecliptic (-3.6 - -3.2) deg. 
               (S30 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED VERY LOW LEVEL. 
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THE PERIOD (114 SPOT-
LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn= 0).

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 9 SOLAR FLARE OF 
"A" CLASS, 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTI-
ONS (23.05) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD.
 
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF    to     te  localization   l deg.  Fl    AR    CME/to
21.05 0227    0335 N40E40L044     7
22.05 0503    0520 S28E16L003     6 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 18.05/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN  WAS "-".  THE BEHAVIOR OF THE 
SECTOR STRUCTURE WILL NOT CHANGE. WITH THE SMALL PROBABILITY, THE FOL-
LOWING THE NEXT COMPARATIVELY STABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECT 
3.06 BUT THE REAL PROVISION OF NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE, 
MAY BE BECAUSE OF A DEEP MINIMUM CONDITIONS (TOPIC FOR STUDY!!!).
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
MAY      18     19     20     21     22     23     24   MAY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   070    069    070    070    071    069    069    
bcg  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                              
IMF     +/-     -      -      -      -      -           DSCOVR   
>2  1.3E+5 1.4+6 1.2E+6 1.4E+6 1.2E+6 1.4E+6 1.3+6   GOES
Ie>2    191    141    134    132    153    148    141   pfu 
Ap       4      5      3      5      6      4      6    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     4      6      3      5      7      4      8    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE.   

NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WILL OBSERVED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov