Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2022/11/28

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 21 - 27.11.2022
                     Forecast on 28.11 - 04.12.2022 
              Carrington Rotations 2264 (07,07.11.2022)
                Earth out of ecliptic (3.5 - 3.9) deg. 
                (S27 - N333 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LE- 
VELS.  ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=038+12/-5
(Wn= 063+20/-8). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 5 SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUPS AND, 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 27 X-RAY FLARES 
CLASS C, 27-CLASS B, THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 38 CORONAL 
MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CME/to
23.11 ~1500            NW         >5                 CME/
24.11 ~0830                       >5                 CME/
24.11 >1300        S35E04L142     ~10
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY,
HIGH LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
 +  N50L318 N25L119 S20L097 N18L122 3.5% 28.11 R3 G1 SDO, HINOTORI
 +  N20L090 N00L100 S20L139 N10L080 4.5% 01.12 R3 A  SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 23.11/2150 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 8.12. 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 21     22     23     24     25     26     27       NOVEMBER
Wus     080    061    068    061    055    060    056   
F10.7   117    116    113    110    100    107    107   
bcg   4.8   5.2   2.6   3.7   B3.0   B3.0   3.3       GOES
Sp      410    410    440    210    350    440    150       msh   
N        1             1                                 
IMF      -      -     -/+     +      +      +      +        DSCOVR   
>2  1.5+6 1.5E+6 1.6E+6 1.3E+6 1.2E+6 4.7E+6 4.3E+7       GOES
Ie>2    164    304    150    138    133    309   2404       Pfu
Ap       10     3      3      6      20     16     15       n  
Dst                                                         n KIOTO
Amsc     7      4      3      6      15     14     15       n IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
 27.11/1345 UT AND OBSERVED 27.11.

 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 28.11 - 5.12.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED  FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNTIL THE 
END OF THE DAY ON 27.11, WHEN ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOTH CENTERS, A 
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM G1 BEGAN, WHICH CONTINUES FOR THE TIME OF WRITING 
THE REVIEW - THE EARTH ENTERED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE  
OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO AC-
TIVE. HOWEVER, FROM 1.12 THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF 
ANOTHER TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC 
STORM 1 - 2.12 (BASED ON THE CORONAL HOLE CHARACTERISTICS) IS NOT LESS 
THAN 30%.

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov