Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2021/07/19

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 12 - 18.07.2021,
                   Forecast on 19 - 26.07.2021,
            Carrington Rotation 2246 (04,88.07.2021)   
              Earth out of ecliptic (1.5 - 1.9) deg. 
              (S30 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. THE ES-
TIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR PERIOD IS W = 18+14/-11 
(Wn=30+23/-19). 5 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SO-
LAR DISK, ONE ON SOUTH AND FOUR ON NORTH HEMISPHERE  HAS  BEEN 
ODSERVED.
  
 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERA-
GE  VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+30/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 2 SOLAR FLARE OF 
X-RAY CLASS "", 60- "B", AND 30 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (12-18.
07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te     local.   Class   E(1-8A) AR RII/IV  CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2
                                
DSF     to     te   localization   l deg.  Fl    AR    CME/to
15.07                    NE                          /1348
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW AND, POS-
SIBLE, MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
   sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch  EE    R G  Spacecraft 
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12.07/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 19.07.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JULY     12     13     14     15     16     17     18   JULY
Wus     022    011    023    022    035    053    042
F10.7   071    072    072    073    075    077    080    
bcg   2.3   1.8   1.7   A4.3   A7.9   5.3   1.1   GOES
Sp      070    050    070   030     070    090    080   msh   
N                      1             1      1            
IMF     +/-     -      -     -       -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  1.3+6 1.3E+6 1.2+6 1.6E+6 5.6E+6 8.1E+6 6.1+6   GOES
Ie>2    165    180    135    153    235    386    315   pfu
Ap       7      5      14     10     4      4      4    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     10     6      15     12     5      5      5    n IZMIRAN 
----------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT NO OBSERVED.
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND ACTIVE (14.09).
 
 IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov