Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/02/17

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 09 - 16.02.2020,
                 Forecast on 17 - 24.02.2020,
           Carrington Rotation 2227 (02,72.02.2020)   
           Earth out of ecliptic (-3.7 - -4.1) deg. 
           (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (31 SPOTLESS DAYS  IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0(Wn=0). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - ONE SOLAR FLARE (CLASS 
 A7.9), 2 SOLAR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS (10, 13.09) AND ONE CORONAL MASS 
 EJECTION 11.09) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FOR PERIOD.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
10.02 >2338  >1558 S40W90L164       16
13.02  0000   1400 S45W03L212       12
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 14.02/2230 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN  WAS "+". NEXT WEEK THE BEHA-
VIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE.  FORECAST OF A SUS-
TAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARI-
ABILITY OF THE IMF SECTOR SIGN  IN THE CONDITIONS  OF A DEEP  MINIMUM 
CYCLE PHASE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
FEBRUARY 09     10     11     12     13     14     15     16  FEBRUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   071    070    071    072    071    071    071    071
bcg  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                              
IMF      -     -\+     +      +      +     +/-     -      -   DSCOVR   
>2  9.2E+7 1.2+8 5.6E+7 2.9E+7 3.0E+7 3.4E+7 3.0E+7 1.0E+7  GOES
Ie>2   2854   3795   1640   1136    781   1179    799    369  pfu 
Ap       7      5      6      4      3      3      5      3   n  
Dst                                                           n KIOTO
Amsc     6      4      4      5      2      2      5      4   n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT
 08.02/1335 UT AND OBSERVED 8-12 AND 14.02. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT-
LED ALL DAYS.  

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 
WILL OBSERVED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov