Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/02/24

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 17 - 23.02.2020,
                 Forecast on 24.02 - 01.03.2020,
           Carrington Rotation 2227 (02,72.02.2020)   
           Earth out of ecliptic (-4.1 - -4.6) deg. 
           (S29 - N21 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (38 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0(Wn=0). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - FOUR SOLAR FLARE 
(CLASS A), AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (21.02) HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED FOR THE PERIOD.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 15.02/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN  WAS "-". NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR 
OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. FORECAST OF A SUSTAINABLE 
SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARIABILITY OF 
THE IMF SECTOR SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM CYCLE PHASE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
FEBRUARY 17     18     19     20     21     22     23   FEBRUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   071    071    071    070    071    072    070
bcg   <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0  GOES
Sp     000     000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                              
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  8.4E+6 1.8+6 7.2E+6 4.1E+7 6.3E+7 7.9E+7  1.4E+8  GOES
Ie>2    383    183    327   2786   2852   2370    3505  pfu 
Ap       7      14     14     8      14     9       5   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     10     14     10     8      14     9       6   n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
AT 20.02/1625 UT AND OBSERVED 20-23.02. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 24-26.02.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED UNSETTLED ALL 
DAYS.  

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WILL OBSERVED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov