Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/03/27

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2023
                     Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2023 
                Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023)
                Earth out of ecliptic (-7.25 - -7.0) deg.) 
               (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 055+20
/-13 (Wn= 091+34-21). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8 
SUNSPOT GROUPS AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE-
VELS.  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+20/-30.

 FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA-
RE OF X-RAY CLASS , 42-CLASS , 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND 37 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE III (180-
270 deg) AND 2-TYPE II (90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
21.03 0119 0148  0226 S21E57L011 M1.2    4.2E-02  13256

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CMEtype/to
20.03 >0253   >0539  N10E60L110     8
21.03 <1200          W-limb EPL    >10
21.03 >2013           NW-limb      >15    
25.03  0109    0235        EPL     0.11       13263
25.03  1419    1437  S23E41L026      9        13262
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch  EE    R  G   Spacecraft 
  -  S18L056 S55L121 S80L121 S40L049 10.8% 24.03 2    SD0, HINOTORI
  -  N08L349 N03L357 S15L331 N10L319  4.0% 31.03 3 G1  SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 24.03/0730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 9.03. 
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MARCH     20     21     22     23     24     25     26   MARCH
Wus     087    097    096    084    108    105    125
F10.7   156    152    159    151    168    160    159  
bcg   C1.0   B9.0   B7.9   B5.9   B6.8   B7.0   B7.4    GOES
Sp      550    640    800    710    800    880    840    msh   
N               1      1             1             1    
IMF      +      +      +      +      +     +/-     -     DSCOVR   
>2  7.4+6 7.6E+6 1.4E+7 3.5E+6 1.5E+6 2.3+7 3.7+7    GOES
Ie>2    335    428    540    323    116    662    746    pfU
Ap       12     7      15     55     69     13     6     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     10     6      17     50     40     12     11    n IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.

Pr>10MeV:19/1900UT;Tmax1-1800/1.7 pfu;Tmax2-20/0500/1.8 pfu;Te-23/1630 
 
 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.  

 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 MeV MAY BE  
EXPECTED AFTER 28.03.

 A STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G4, ms=106, dur=27 h) ACCORDING TO THE DA-
TA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G3, ms= 71, dur=24 h) ACCORDING TO 
THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS REGISTERED ON 23 -24.09 AS A CONSEQUENCE OF 
THE ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF TWO INTERACTING CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 
TYPE III AND II ON 20.030 FROM POSSIBLE FLARES EVENTS:
20.03 1326 1353 1407 C1.5         S24E50 13256 ?CMEIII/1407|1986km/s 
20.03 1415 1513	1630 C4.1 4.7E-02 N32E26 13258  CMEII /1613|1984km/s
THE 2nd FLARE BY CHARACTERISTICS (EXTENDED, WITH GOOD ENERGY) COULD 
PROVIDE CME WITH SUCH PARAMETERS, HOWEVER, THE 1st-CAUSED CONFUSION.
SUBSTORMS AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 24.03 (dur 9 h G1) AND 25.03 (6h, 
G0) CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE 
SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE (22.03). 

 THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UN-
SETTLED AND QUIET, ALL DAYS EXCEPT 31.03 WHEN THE EARTH WILL ENTER 
A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM  FROM  THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL 
HOLE "-" POLARITY. A RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM CAN BE EXPECTED 
WITH A PROBABILITY OF ~40%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov