Solar Activity Forecast
2023/03/27
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2023
Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2023
Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (-7.25 - -7.0) deg.)
(S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 055+20
/-13 (Wn= 091+34-21). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8
SUNSPOT GROUPS AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE-
VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+20/-30.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA-
RE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 42-CLASS ó, 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS
AND 37 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE III (180-
270 deg) AND 2-TYPE II (90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
21.03 0119 0148 0226 S21E57L011 M1.2 4.2E-02 13256
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
20.03 >0253 >0539 N10E60L110 8
21.03 <1200 W-limb EPL >10
21.03 >2013 NW-limb >15
25.03 0109 0235 EPL 0.11 13263
25.03 1419 1437 S23E41L026 9 13262
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî - S18L056 S55L121 S80L121 S40L049 10.8% 24.03 2 á SD0, HINOTORI
óî - N08L349 N03L357 S15L331 N10L319 4.0% 31.03 3 G1 SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 24.03/0730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 9.03.
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MARCH 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 MARCH
Wus 087 097 096 084 108 105 125
F10.7 156 152 159 151 168 160 159
èbcg C1.0 B9.0 B7.9 B5.9 B6.8 B7.0 B7.4 GOES
Sp 550 640 800 710 800 880 840 msh
N 1 1 1 1
IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR
Å>2 7.4å+6 7.6E+6 1.4E+7 3.5E+6 1.5E+6 2.3å+7 3.7å+7 GOES
Ie>2 335 428 540 323 116 662 746 pfU
Ap 12 7 15 55 69 13 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 10 6 17 50 40 12 11 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
Pr>10MeV:19/1900UT;Tmax1-1800/1.7 pfu;Tmax2-20/0500/1.8 pfu;Te-23/1630
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY BE
EXPECTED AFTER 28.03.
A STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G4, áms=106, dur=27 h) ACCORDING TO THE DA-
TA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G3, áms= 71, dur=24 h) ACCORDING TO
THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS REGISTERED ON 23 -24.09 AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
THE ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF TWO INTERACTING CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF
TYPE III AND II ON 20.030 FROM POSSIBLE FLARES EVENTS:
20.03 1326 1353 1407 C1.5 S24E50 13256 ?CMEIII/1407|1986km/s
20.03 1415 1513 1630 C4.1 4.7E-02 N32E26 13258 CMEII /1613|1984km/s
THE 2nd FLARE BY CHARACTERISTICS (EXTENDED, WITH GOOD ENERGY) COULD
PROVIDE CME WITH SUCH PARAMETERS, HOWEVER, THE 1st-CAUSED CONFUSION.
SUBSTORMS AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 24.03 (dur 9 h G1) AND 25.03 (6h,
G0) CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE
SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE (22.03).
THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UN-
SETTLED AND QUIET, ALL DAYS EXCEPT 31.03 WHEN THE EARTH WILL ENTER
A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL
HOLE "-" POLARITY. A RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH A PROBABILITY OF ~40%.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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