Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/01/20

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 13 - 19.01.2020,
                Forecast on 20 - 27.01.2020,
          Carrington Rotation 2226 (06,38.01.2020)   
           Earth out of ecliptic (-1.4 -  -1.7) deg. 
              (S27 - N23 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (12 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020-60%). ESTI-
MATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE  SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 
(Wn = 0).   

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/
-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT 
EJECTIONS WITH CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (14.01) HAVE BEEN OBSER-
VED.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
14.01      0952    S02W12L229        ?                   
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH*+  N35L233 N15L242 N25L239 N25L218  2.0% 14.01  1  -  SDO, SOHO...
* - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 13.01/1330; 15/1520 AND 17/1125 UT THE IMF SIGN CHANGED AND WAS UNSTAB-
LE. NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. 
FORECAST OF A SUSTAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE 
CONSTANT VARIABILITY OF THE IMF SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM 
CYCLE PHASE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  13     14     15     16     17     18     19    JANUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   072    072    071    072    070    071    072 
bcg  A<1.0  A<1.0  A<1.0   A1.3   A1.0  A<1.0  A<1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                  
IMF     +/-     -     -/+      +    +/-      -     -    DSCOVR   
>2  3.5E+7 2.2E+7 1.8E+7 5.7E+6 4.9E+6 5.2E+6 4.5E+6   GOES
Ie>2   1362    874    581    309    309    218    179   pfu 
Ap       3      2      3      5      3      4      3    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     6      6      7      8      6      5      4    n IZMIRAN 
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS 13.
01 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ONLY. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT-
LED.

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 
WILL OBSERVED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov