Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2023/12/04

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                 THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

 THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2023 HAS MADE
               Wnov =  73.8        105.4(in new system)
 THAT GIVES FOR 40 MONTH (APRIL 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 
 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
           W*may  =   79.9           123.9 - in new system 
           W*apr  =   73.8           122.7 - in new system         
 
  On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
 lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
 values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
 (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
 old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
 minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. 
 Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system 
 ~ close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.65.
 
 THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
 THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE  - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
 THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;

 PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR NOVEMBER 2023
 (64 observatories):
      1..115    6.. 77   11.. 79   16.. 30   21..152   26..165
      2..120    7.. 77   12.. 81   17.. 25m  22..155   27..154
      3..122    8..112   13.. 72   18.. 31   23..181M  28..148
      4.. 91    9.. 98   14.. 57   19.. 67   24..162   29..158
      5.. 91   10.. 91   15.. 34   20.. 95   25..174   30..148
 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a phase of 
 maximum) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.65].
  
  THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) 
 ON NOVEMBER 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON MAY 2023    
                F10.7nov = 154.4         F*10.7may= 157.8
   THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2023, AND  
SMOOTHES ON MAY 2023                
                Ap nov=12.3             Ap*may = xxx              
 -------------------------------------------------------------------

                    25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
               THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM      
                    
         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 27.11 - 03.12.2023
                      Forecast on 04 - 11.12.2023 
        Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023)
               Earth out of ecliptic (1.5 - 0.8 deg) 
                (S30 - N30 is zone of geoefficiency)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH 
LEVELS. ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 
086+21/-16 (Wn= 132+32/-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED 
UP 13 SUNSPOT GROUPS  AND UP 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END 
OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK 
WILL W=120+40/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.  4 FLARE OF X-RAY 
CLASS M, 82 - CLASS C, 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 79 CORONAL 
MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (halo),1- TYPE III (an-
gular width 180-270 deg)  AND  4 OF TYPE II (90-180 deg),  HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2
28.11 1907 1932 1935 S15W02L302 M3.4            13500 II          
28.11 1935 1950 2009 S16W00L302 M9.8          13500 II CMEIV/2021
01.12 0412 0456	0439 N12W73L342	M1.1	   2.7E-0 13502
01.12 2055 2120 2210            M1.0            13500              

DSF (EPL) to   te localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CMEtype/to
27.11 0531        S26W27L330   >30                 CMEII/0624?
https://www.spaceweather.com/ at 28 11 2023 - outstanding event
27.11 2304  2344  N27E38L341    13      C5.5 13503 CMEII/2348
30.11             S20W40L240    >10
01.12 1344        S30E58L319    >10                CME  /1448  
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE    R G  Spacecraft 
CH - N27L277 S35L317 S35L307 S20L252 7.9% 4-5.12 4 MMS SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 1.12/1315 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" EXPECTED 11.12.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
NOVEMBER 27     28     29     30     01     02    03     DECEMBER     
Wus     150    130    164    138    140    092    107
F10.7   187    182    171    167    162    148    139    
bcg   1.1   1.1   1.2   1.0   1.2   1.1   B9.6    GOES       
Sp      885    335    530    620    640    580    550    msh        
N               1      3             1             2      
IMF      +      +      +      +     +/-     -      -     DSCOVR     
>2  2.1+6 3.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.4E+7 1.6E+6 1.1+6 1.3+6    GOES       
Ie>2    153    180    392    394    324    131   <131    pfU       
Ap       6      6      4      4      50     13     10    n        
Dst                                -107                  n KIOTO  
Amsc     6      6      4      4      39     11     9     n IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary 
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in  (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  
for events F>1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT  
NOT OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 
MeV MAY BE EXPECTED AFTER 5.11

A STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3,Ams=56, dur=27 h) ACCORDING OF THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER DATA  AND  MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2,Ams = 39, 
dur=18 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA  OCCURRED ON 1 -2.12 AFTER 
THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE  FROM  THE FILAMENT EJECTION AT 
27.11 AND LARGE SOLAR FLARE M9.8 28.12. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.

NEXT WEEK 4-5.12 EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE 
VERI LARGE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF "-" POLARITY.  THE 
PROBABILITY OF A RECURRENT  MINOR MAGNETIC STORM  IS  NOT LESS 
THAN 80%.  IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXPECTED BE 
UNSETTLED AND QUITE. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov