Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2022/09/26

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 19 - 25.09.2022
                     Forecast on 26 - 02.10.2022 
    Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022)
                Earth out of ecliptic (-2.2 - -1.6) deg. 
                (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ES-
TIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=056+21/-14 (Wn=
093+35/-23). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 6 SUNSPOT GRO-
UPS, ONE OF THEM  WAS BIG AND 5 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+50/-30.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 3 X-RAY FLA-
RES WERE CLASS "M", 97-CLASS "C", 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 46 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM WHICH 1 WAS TYPE IV (HALO)  AND 1-TYPE
II (angular width 90-180 deg),  HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
20.09 1113 1122	1145 S25W17L302	M1.0/1N 8.5E-03 13102
21.09 0651 0702 0717 S25E73L196 M1.0    1.0E-02 13107
23.09 1748 1810 1841 N19E77L158 M1.7/SF         13110 II/IV CME/1854   

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CME/to
19.09 >0003  >1413  S25E43L        9                     
23.09 >0044  >1328  S22W59L237    20          13103
23.09^   <1300    ~S25W90L~300                        CME
24.09 >0019  >1336  N10E31L254    58
^A CME off the W, associated with a prominence eruption at 23/1300 
in the vicinity of AR13102
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLASH ACTIVITY WILL BE AT MEDIUM, LOW, AND PROBABLY AT 
 HIGH LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
CH -  S20L206 S50L261 S85L216 S25L203 7.5% 26.09 3 MM SDO HINODE
 +  N40L247 N30L242 N12L232 N25L217 3.6% 31.09 3  SDO HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 15.09/1305 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 29.09. ACCOR-
DING TO THE FORECAST, THE BORDER SHOULD HAVE BEEN 29.09. WHY EARLIER 
- A QUESTION, WE STUDY ...
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
SEPTEMBER 19     20     21     22     23     24     25  
Wus      074    070    070    099    111    128    096   
F10.7    128    137    137    137    140    147    135
bcg    1.0   1.3   1.0   1.0   C1.2   1.5    8.2 GOES
Sp       440    720    650    980   1050    980    850  msh   
N         2      1      2      1      1                
IMF       -      -      -     -/+     +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2   5.5+6 7.3E+6 1.2E+7 1.2E+7 5.9E+6 1.8E+7 5.4E+7  GOES
Ie>2     554    329    409    420    372    838   2130  pfu
Ap        11     8      5      6      12     13     7   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      12     8      4      6      12     13     4   n IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.

Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; max: 12/1345UT - 6.75pfu; Te: 23/03 UT. 
WHEN THE PROTON FLUX FALLED BELOW 1 pfu BUT CONTINUES...

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB-
 SERVED.
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- 
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.

  NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED 
 TO THE CONDITIONS OF  A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON Sept. 31-1.10,  WHEN 
 THE EARTH ENTERS A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM  FROM THE "+" CORONAL 
 HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERES. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~ 60%.

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov