Solar Activity Forecast
2022/09/26
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 19 - 25.09.2022
Forecast on 26 - 02.10.2022
Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (-2.2 - -1.6) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=056+21/-14 (Wn=
093+35/-23). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 6 SUNSPOT GRO-
UPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND 5 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+50/-30.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 3 X-RAY FLA-
RES WERE CLASS "M", 97-CLASS "C", 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 46
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM WHICH 1 WAS TYPE IV (HALO) AND 1-TYPE
II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
20.09 1113 1122 1145 S25W17L302 M1.0/1N 8.5E-03 13102
21.09 0651 0702 0717 S25E73L196 M1.0 1.0E-02 13107
23.09 1748 1810 1841 N19E77L158 M1.7/SF 13110 II/IV CME/1854
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
19.09 >0003 >1413 S25E43L 9
23.09 >0044 >1328 S22W59L237 20 13103
23.09^ <1300 ~S25W90L~300 CME
24.09 >0019 >1336 N10E31L254 58
^A CME off the W, associated with a prominence eruption at 23/1300
in the vicinity of AR13102
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NEXT WEEK FLASH ACTIVITY WILL BE AT MEDIUM, LOW, AND PROBABLY AT
HIGH LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH - S20L206 S50L261 S85L216 S25L203 7.5% 26.09 3 MMâ SDO HINODE
óî + N40L247 N30L242 N12L232 N25L217 3.6% 31.09 3 ííâ SDO HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 15.09/1305 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 29.09. ACCOR-
DING TO THE FORECAST, THE BORDER SHOULD HAVE BEEN 29.09. WHY EARLIER
- A QUESTION, WE STUDY ...
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SEPTEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 óåîôñâòø
Wus 074 070 070 099 111 128 096
F10.7 128 137 137 137 140 147 135
èbcg ó1.0 ó1.3 ó1.0 ó1.0 C1.2 ó1.5 ÷8.2 GOES
Sp 440 720 650 980 1050 980 850 msh
N 2 1 2 1 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 5.5å+6 7.3E+6 1.2E+7 1.2E+7 5.9E+6 1.8E+7 5.4E+7 GOES
Ie>2 554 329 409 420 372 838 2130 pfu
Ap 11 8 5 6 12 13 7 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 12 8 4 6 12 13 4 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; max: 12/1345UT - 6.75pfu; Te: 23/03 UT.
WHEN THE PROTON FLUX FALLED BELOW 1 pfu BUT CONTINUES...
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED
TO THE CONDITIONS OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON Sept. 31-1.10, WHEN
THE EARTH ENTERS A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE "+" CORONAL
HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERES. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~ 60%.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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