Solar Activity Forecast
2021/07/19
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.07.2021,
Forecast on 19 - 26.07.2021,
Carrington Rotation 2246 (04,88.07.2021)
Earth out of ecliptic (1.5 - 1.9) deg.
(S30 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. THE ES-
TIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 18+14/-11
(Wn=30+23/-19). 5 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SO-
LAR DISK, ONE ON SOUTH AND FOUR ON NORTH HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN
ODSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERA-
GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+30/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 2 SOLAR FLARE OF
X-RAY CLASS "ó", 60- "B", AND 30 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (12-18.
07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
15.07 NE óíå î/1348
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW AND, POS-
SIBLE, MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 12.07/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 19.07.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
JULY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 JULY
Wus 022 011 023 022 035 053 042
F10.7 071 072 072 073 075 077 080
èbcg á2.3 á1.8 á1.7 A4.3 A7.9 á5.3 ÷1.1 GOES
Sp 070 050 070 030 070 090 080 msh
N 1 1 1
IMF +/- - - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 1.3å+6 1.3E+6 1.2å+6 1.6E+6 5.6E+6 8.1E+6 6.1å+6 GOES
Ie>2 165 180 135 153 235 386 315 pfu
Ap 7 5 14 10 4 4 4 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 10 6 15 12 5 5 5 nô IZMIRAN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT NO OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND ACTIVE (14.09).
IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
|
