Solar Activity Forecast
2023/12/04
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2023 HAS MADE
Wnov = 73.8 105.4(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 40 MONTH (APRIL 2023) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*may = 79.9 123.9 - in new system
W*apr = 73.8 122.7 - in new system
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.
Daily, monthly average and smoothed values of W in the old system
~ close to the true ones can be obtained by multiplying by k=0.65.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR NOVEMBER 2023
(64 observatories):
1..115 6.. 77 11.. 79 16.. 30 21..152 26..165
2..120 7.. 77 12.. 81 17.. 25m 22..155 27..154
3..122 8..112 13.. 72 18.. 31 23..181M 28..148
4.. 91 9.. 98 14.. 57 19.. 67 24..162 29..158
5.. 91 10.. 91 15.. 34 20.. 95 25..174 30..148
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a phase of
maximum) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.65].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)
ON NOVEMBER 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON MAY 2023
F10.7nov = 154.4 F*10.7may= 157.8
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2023, AND
SMOOTHES ON MAY 2023
Ap nov=12.3 Ap*may = xxx
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25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.11 - 03.12.2023
Forecast on 04 - 11.12.2023
Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (1.5 - 0.8 deg)
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W =
086+21/-16 (Wn= 132+32/-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED
UP 13 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL W=120+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY
CLASS M, 82 - CLASS C, 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 79 CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (halo),1- TYPE III (an-
gular width 180-270 deg) AND 4 OF TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
28.11 1907 1932 1935 S15W02L302 M3.4 13500 II
28.11 1935 1950 2009 S16W00L302 M9.8 13500 II CMEIV/2021
01.12 0412 0456 0439 N12W73L342 M1.1 2.7E-0 13502
01.12 2055 2120 2210 M1.0 13500
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
27.11 0531 S26W27L330 >30 CMEII/0624?
https://www.spaceweather.com/ at 28 11 2023 - outstanding event
27.11 2304 2344 N27E38L341 13 C5.5 13503 CMEII/2348
30.11 S20W40L240 >10
01.12 1344 S30E58L319 >10 CME /1448
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH - N27L277 S35L317 S35L307 S20L252 7.9% 4-5.12 4 MMS SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 1.12/1315 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" EXPECTED 11.12.
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NOVEMBER 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 DECEMBER
Wus 150 130 164 138 140 092 107
F10.7 187 182 171 167 162 148 139
èbcg ó1.1 ó1.1 ó1.2 ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.1 B9.6 GOES
Sp 885 335 530 620 640 580 550 msh
N 1 3 1 2
IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR
Å>2 2.1å+6 3.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.4E+7 1.6E+6 1.1å+6 1.3å+6 GOES
Ie>2 153 180 392 394 324 131 <131 pfU
Ap 6 6 4 4 50 13 10 nô
Dst -107 nô KIOTO
Amsc 6 6 4 4 39 11 9 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
NOT OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2
MeV MAY BE EXPECTED AFTER 5.11
A STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3,Ams=56, dur=27 h) ACCORDING OF THE
CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2,Ams = 39,
dur=18 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA OCCURRED ON 1 -2.12 AFTER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTION AT
27.11 AND LARGE SOLAR FLARE M9.8 28.12. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.
NEXT WEEK 4-5.12 EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE
VERI LARGE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF "-" POLARITY. THE
PROBABILITY OF A RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOT LESS
THAN 80%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXPECTED BE
UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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