Solar Activity Forecast
2021/01/11
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 04 - 11.01.2021,
Forecast on 11 - 18.01.2021,
Carrington Rotation 2239(25,94.12.2020)
Earth out of ecliptic (-0.9 - -1.4) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
AND THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (8 DAY AT 2021). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0).
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE AT VERY LOW LEVEL. THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISC WILL BE SPOTLESS VERY LIKELY. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR
NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVELS. NO SOLAR FLARE OF LOW X-
RAY CLASS "B", ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT FROM S-W QUADRANT
ON ~S25W60 8.01 AND EIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (06-08.01) HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
08.01 0434 SW-qwadrant ~10 CME/0512
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 5.01/13 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA-
RY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN
BE EXPECT 11.01.
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JANUARY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JANUARY
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 078 075 074 075 075 074 073
èbcg á2.7 á2.0 <A1.0 A1.0 á1.4 á1.2 <A1.0 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF - +/- - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 8.3E+6 5.4å+6 1.3E+6 1.6E+6 2.3E+6 2.3E+6 2.5å+6 GOES
Ie>2 652 1174 162 144 207 179 210 pfu
Ap 3 11 11 6 2 3 3 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 2 10 5 5 1 2 3 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ALL DAYS THERE WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSETT-
LED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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