Solar Activity Forecast
2020/01/13
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.01.2020,
Forecast on 13 - 20.01.2020,
Carrington Rotation 2226 (06,38.01.2020)
Earth out of ecliptic (-1 - -1.4) deg.
(S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW, BUT WITH
A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK WAS 7-8 AND 11-12.01 (4 SPOTLESS DAYS
IN THE 2020 - 10%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)
FOR PERIOD W=4+4/-4 (Wn= 7+6/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISK TWO SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUP, HIGH-ALTITUDE, WITH THE ORDER OF MAGNTTIC POLARI-
TIES 25th CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS AND TWO (6-7.01) CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
08.01 >1014 >2252 S42W16L310 3 12755
12.01 <0006 ? N50WW40L228 7
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH*+ S05L040 S15L057 S28L030 S12L010 5.5% 07.01 8 - SDO, SOHO...
CH*+ N35L233 N15L242 N25L239 N25L218 2.0% 14.01 1 - SDO, SOHO...
* - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 11.01/0830 UT, THE SIGN OF SECTOR IMF IS EXPECTED UNSTABLE AND CHAN-
GES FREQUENTLY, BUT IN THE MIDDLE IT REMAINS WITH THE "+". IN THE FOLLOW-
ING WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT NEXT SECTOR BOU-
DARY BE EXPECTED 1.02.
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JANUARY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JANUARY
Wus 011 000 000 014 011 000 000
F10.7 071 072 074 074 073 074 072
èbcg A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A1.3 A1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 GOES
Sp 010 000 000 030 010 000 000 msh
N 1
IMF +/- - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR
Å>2 4.4E+6 9.8E+5 4.3E+6 7.3E+6 1.3E+7 2.6E+7 2.2E+7 GOES
Ie>2 273 617 1223 979 pfu
Ap 9 5 6 12 7 6 4 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 10 7 9 12 8 7 5 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS 11.
01 HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT-
LED ALL DAYS EXEPT 9.01 WHEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WAS PLANETARY
MINOR SUBSTORM (G0) duration <3 h. HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION
WILL OBSERVED,BUT IS POSSIBLE ACTIVE CONDITION AT 14.01 FOLLOWED BY A
CIR FROM POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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