Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/07/06

Dear users, the current 24th solar cycle (SC), the first cycle of the 2nd epoch 
of the lowered of solar activity (SA), has been going on for a full 11 years, 
which exceeds the duration of all high cycles of the era of increased SA and 
slightly exceeds the average period of the duration of cycles (10.9 years) of 
the epoch of the lowered SA. I.e. we got one more proof of the existence of two 
epochs of SA - 2 modes of solar dynamo.It follows from here that active regions 
on the Sun and, in particular, sunspots form under three completely different 
physical conditions: when the background magnetic field of the Sun is lowered, 
when its level is elevated, and in transitional SCs (23, 17, 11), when alternating 
background of the general magnetic field, when the total magnetic field of the Sun 
is rebuilt to the level corresponding to the upcoming epoch of SA. 

Now begins an interesting period of waiting for records:
1. The current cycle has already reached the lowest Wolf number for reliable SCs 
and continues to fall. Before that, the record holder was SC 15 (W * = 1.5),
2. Will it become shorter than SC12 - the 1st cycle of the past epoch of low SA 
(11.3) and what surprises is the current cycle still preparing for us.

The intrigue takes place ... We’re waiting ...

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2020 HAS MADE 
              Wmar. = 3.5             5.8(n)  
THAT GIVES FOR 129 MONTH (2019, OCTOBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*dec. = 1.14       1.9 - new system
              W*nov. = 1.3        2.1 - new system
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE     -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2020;
OTHER SC FORECAST:
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)            -   February 2020;
NOAA                        -   December 2019.
The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low 
SCs were not observed.

The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 
2019) can be seen  http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for June 2020 (70 obser-
vatories): 
      1..  5    6.. 16   11.. 11   16..  0   21..  0   26..  6
      2..  0    7.. 16   12.. 11   17..  0   22..  0   27..  4
      3..  9    8.. 17M  13.. 11   18..  0   23..  0   28..  0
      4.. 11    9.. 14   14.. 11   19..  0   24..  0   29..  0
      5.. 13   10.. 11   15..  8   20..  0   25..  0   30..  0

Minimum : 0 on 2, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24,
              25, 28, 29, 30
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) 
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
   
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
JUNE 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, DECEMBER
               F10.7 june = 69.7           F*10.7dec.= xxx 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JUNE 2020, AND SMOOT-
HES ON 2019, DECEMBER
               Ap june = 4.0               Ap*dec. = xxx
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      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 29.06 - 05.07.2020,
                   Forecast on 06 - 13.07.2020,
               Carrington Rotation 2232 (21,88.05.2020)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (-0.4 - +0.5) deg. 
             (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. THE 
SUN's VISIBLE DISK  WAS SPOTLESS ALL DAYS (139 SPOTLESS DAYS 
AT 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
PERIOD W =0 (Wn=0). 5.09 A SMALL SINGLE SUNSPOT CURRENT CYCLE 
APPEARED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK IN THE 
NORTH HEMISPHERE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. 17 SOLAR FLARE OF VERY 
LOW X-RAY CLASS "A" AND 4 CORONAL MASS EJECTION HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.
 
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF    to     te  localization   l deg.  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 2.07/1120 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT 
CAN EXPECT 18.07.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
     29     30     01     02     03     04     05   
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    012    011
F10.7   069    068    068    068    069    070    069
bcg  >A1.0   A1.2  >A1.0  >A1.0  >A1.0  >A1.0  >A1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    010    010   msh   
N                                           1  
IMF      -      -     -       -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  1.6E+6 1.1+6 1.1E+6 1.2E+6 1.2E+6 1.3E+6 1.4+6   GOES
Ie>2    214    163    159    149    201    145    151   pfu 
Ap       3      4      6      4      3      7      10   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     4      6      6      3      4      7      11   n IZMIRAN 
----------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WILL OBSERVED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov