Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/02/05

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

 THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2023 HAS 
MADE          Wdec. = 86.2        143.6(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 31 MONTH (2022, JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
              W*july = 51.9         86.5 -   
              W*june = 48.6         81.0 -   

On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.

THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE  - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;

PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JANUARY 2023
(66 observatories):
1..107    6..132   11..173   16..188   21..194   26..108   31.. 77
2..103    7..130   12..171   17..187   22..164   27.. 84
3..107    8..136   13..179   18..198   23..166   28.. 84
4.. 95    9..147   14..187   19..206M  24..151   29.. 77
5..112   10..178   15..199   20..205   25..133   30.. 75m
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON
JANUARY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2022    
               F10.7jan. = 182.4         F*10.7july= 127.9

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2023,
AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2022
               Ap jan. = 8.7            Ap*july = xxx
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 30.01 - 04.02.2023
                     Forecast on 05 - 13.02.2023 
         Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023)
                Earth out of ecliptic (4.9 - 4.5) deg. 
               (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL.  ESTIMATED,
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR PERIOD IS W= 36+17/-2 (Wn = 60+19/-4). ON 
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 3 LOCALIZED ON 
THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=110+30/-40.

FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 48 FLARE WAS 
X-RAY CLASS , TWO EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS  AND 31 CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS, TWO OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180deg) HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR    CMEtype/to
03.02     0844     N25W10L258      8                  CMEII/1036
04.02     0040     S15E50L321     >5                  CMEII/0125
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G   Spacecraft 
 -  N51L288 N50L293 S05L271 N10L246 6.5% 7.02  1  -  SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 29.01/2345 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 12.02. 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  30     31     01     02     03     04      
Wus     067    065    089    056    074    066   
F10.7   136    137    134    135    135    139    
bcg   5.5   7.4   7.2   6.3   5.5   B7.7      GOES
Sp      290    360    320    180    190    180      msh   
N        1             1             2      1    
IMF      -      -      -      -     -       -       DSCOVR   
>2  2.5+7 2.8E+6 8.6E+6 1.5E+6 2.2E+6  1.2+6     GOES
Ie>2    297    473    708    142    144    113      Pfu
Ap       5      9      6      6      9      6       n  
Dst                                                 n KIOTO
Amsc     6      8      7      5      7      6       n IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------     
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.
 
 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 MeV IS NOT EX-
PECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. 

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO
UNSETTLED, HOWEVER, ON 6 -7.02 THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED 
STREAM OF A LARGE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE  "-" POLARITY. THE 
PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM  DURING  THESE DAYS  IS ~10%,   
AS THE MOST GEOEFFICIENT PART OF THIS CH is ABOVE N30.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO
UNSETTLED.

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov