Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2023/06/05

                        25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                 THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

  THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2023 HAS MADE
               Wmay =  82.7        137.9(in new system)
 THAT GIVES FOR 35 MONTH (NOVEMBER 2022) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 
 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
              W*nov = 61.0        101   - in new system
              W*ct = 59.2         98.7 - in new system             
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
 lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
 values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
 (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
 old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
 minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.

 THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE  -  I 2020  with W*=1.3; (1.8n)  
 THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25  -  2020 01 - 2021 10
 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE  - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
 THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2031;

 PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR MAY 2023
 (66 observatories):
1..105m   6..116   11..158   16..106   21..144   26..145   31..179M
2..123    7..133   12..142   17..106   22..138   27..139
3..122    8..130   13..133   18..134   23..128   28..146
4..138    9..177   14..134   19..143   24..150   29..157
5..114   10..165   15..111   20..144   25..151   30..165
 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
 can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
  
  THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) 
 ON MAY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON NOVEMBER 2022    
                F10.7may = 145.9         F*10.7nov= 140.4

  THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2023,  AND 
 SMOOTHES ON NOVEMBER 2022               25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                Ap may = 13.3            Ap*nov = xxx              
 -------------------------------------------------------------------

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
                 THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 29.05 - 04.06.2023
                  Forecast on 05 - 13.06.2023 
            Carrington Rotations 2271 (17,9.05.2023)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-1.0 - -0.4 deg.) 
            (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING  SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 091+1/
-25 (Wn = 151+2/-41). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 7 
SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 BIG SIZE, AND UP 3 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE 
SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.

FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLA-
RES OF X-RAY CLASS M, 81-CLASS , 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND 35 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90-180 
deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
30.05 0754 0810 0819 N00E00L285 M1.2/SF 9.7E-03 13310          
30.05 1015 1022 1029 S22W89L285 M1.3    6.4E-03 13310          
30.05 1336 1338 1400 S20W41L234 M1.4/1B 3.0E-03 13315
31.05 0424 0438 0444 S07E89L104 M1.3    9.3E-03 13323       
31.05 1223 1226 1230 S17W20L200 M1.0    2.3E-03 13319
31.05 2214 2252 2312 S06E82L104 M4.2            13323
02.06 0232 0241 0245 N16E02L159 M1.5    4.3E-03 13324
                                                            
DSF (EPL) to    te  localization    l deg.  Fl    AR   CMEtype/to
03.06 >0119   >1337  S26E29L119    5            13321
04.06  0830    1000  S20W33L089   35                    CME/1036
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE    R  G  Spacecraft 
CH +  S25L253 S30L293 S55L323 S27L251 3.2% 01.06 2 MM SDO, HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 3.06/01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.06. 
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MAY      29     30     31     01     02     03     04    
Wus     153    144    147    143    147    112    110     
F10.7   154    162    161    164    162    165    168       
bcg   9.2   C1.3   1.8   1.5   1.3   1.4   B1.5    GOES
Sp     1320    990   1590   1160   1070    880    930    msh   
N        4      2      1             3                   
IMF      -      -      -      -      -     -/+     ~     DSCOVR   
>2  7.2+6 1.6E+7 1.0E+7 3.7E+6 4.1+6 8.5+6 2.8E+6    GOES
Ie>2    277    521    653    243    226    319    328    pfU
Ap       4      4      9      11     4      4      9     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     4      6      10     14     6      5      12    n IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES-18  in  (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  
for events F>1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT 
NO OBSERVED.  

 NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 
MeV IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. 

 NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY 
 THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov