Solar Activity Forecast
2023/02/05
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2023 HAS
MADE Wdec. = 86.2 143.6(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 31 MONTH (2022, JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*july = 51.9 86.5 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ
W*june = 48.6 81.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JANUARY 2023
(66 observatories):
1..107 6..132 11..173 16..188 21..194 26..108 31.. 77
2..103 7..130 12..171 17..187 22..164 27.. 84
3..107 8..136 13..179 18..198 23..166 28.. 84
4.. 95 9..147 14..187 19..206M 24..151 29.. 77
5..112 10..178 15..199 20..205 25..133 30.. 75m
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON
JANUARY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2022
F10.7jan. = 182.4 F*10.7july= 127.9
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2023,
AND SMOOTHES ON JULY 2022
Ap jan. = 8.7 Ap*july = xxx
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25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.01 - 04.02.2023
Forecast on 05 - 13.02.2023
Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (4.9 - 4.5) deg.
(S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED,
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 36+17/-2 (Wn = 60+19/-4). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 3 LOCALIZED ON
THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=110+30/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 48 FLARE WAS
X-RAY CLASS ó, TWO EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 31 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS, TWO OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180deg) HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
03.02 0844 N25W10L258 8 CMEII/1036
04.02 0040 S15E50L321 >5 CMEII/0125
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî - N51L288 N50L293 S05L271 N10L246 6.5% 7.02 1 - SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 29.01/2345 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 12.02.
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JANUARY 30 31 01 02 03 04 æå÷òáìø
Wus 067 065 089 056 074 066
F10.7 136 137 134 135 135 139
èbcg ÷5.5 ÷7.4 ÷7.2 ÷6.3 ÷5.5 B7.7 GOES
Sp 290 360 320 180 190 180 msh
N 1 1 2 1
IMF - - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 2.5å+7 2.8E+6 8.6E+6 1.5E+6 2.2E+6 1.2å+6 GOES
Ie>2 297 473 708 142 144 113 Pfu
Ap 5 9 6 6 9 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 6 8 7 5 7 6 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX-
PECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO
UNSETTLED, HOWEVER, ON 6 -7.02 THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM OF A LARGE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE
PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM DURING THESE DAYS IS ~10%,
AS THE MOST GEOEFFICIENT PART OF THIS CH is ABOVE N30.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO
UNSETTLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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