Solar Activity Forecast
2022/05/16
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 15.05.2022,
Forecast on 16 - 23.05.2022
Carrington Rotations 2257 (01,1.05. 2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.1 - 3.4) deg.
(S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDLLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=9+16/-22 (Wn=98+31/-32). THERE
ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS THE MID-
DLE SIZE AND 5 PASSED ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-30.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X-
RAY WAS CLASS "X", 5 - CLASS "M", 69 - CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT
EJECTION AND 42 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (10 - 15.05), HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
10.05 1350 1355 1449 S30W04L246 X1.5/1B 3.1E-02 13006 II/3|718 CME
11.05 1624 1649 1707 S24E39L190 1N/M1.6 1.3E-02 13007
11.05 1808*2050 1858 S17W89L323 M2.7/SF 4.2E-02 13004 II/2|1258 CME
II/2|1345 CME
11.05 1927 1935 1931 S17W89L323 M2.2/ 1.2E-02 13004
12.05 2004 2027 2019 N14E88L M1.3 9.2E-03 13011
* - two radiodi радиовсплеска типа II в одном вспышечном событиии
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
06.05 >0116 >1257 N37W10L284 6
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 12.04/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT
25.05.
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APRIL 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 МАЙ
Wus 071 062 084 112 120 105 129
F10.7 117 116 133 133 150 153 154
Хbcg В5.8 С1.3 С1.1 С1.0 C1.2 С1.1 С1.0 GOES
Sp 450 420 450 580 610 580 720 msh
N 2 2 1 1 2
IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR
е>2 1.2Е+6 1.0E+6 1.3E+6 1.0E+6 1.0E+6 1.2E+6 1.2E+6 GOES
Ie>2 151 112 146 112 243 167 140 pfu
Ap 8 3 6 8 7 7 12 nТ
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 7 3 7 7 9 6 11 IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
Pr (>10 MeV) To 11.05/~19; MAX - 12/04-5.45 pfu; Те - 13.05/18
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE AT UNSETTLED AND LOW
LEVELS. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS ARE ONLY POSSIBLE FROM SPORADIC
FLARES EVENTS.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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