Solar Activity Forecast
2021/10/25
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 19 - 24.10.2021,
Forecast on 25 - 31.10.2021
Carrington Rotations 2249, 2250 (24,59.09; 21,88.10.2021)
Earth out of ecliptic (-1.5 - -1.9) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW AND LOW LE-
VELS. 18.10 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (2021 total: 60 days - 21%).
ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=12+16/-5
(Wn= 20+26/-9). THERE WERE THREE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON VISIBLE SO-
LAR DISK: ONE MIDDLE SIZE AND 2 - SMALL, ALL ON S-HEMISPHERES
HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=040+20/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 50 FLARES OF X-
RAY CLASS "B", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 17 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS (18, 19, 21-23.10) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
21.10 0536 0625 N24W43L 7
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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20.10/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 25.10.
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OCTOBER 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 OCTOBER
Wus 000 011 011 011 028 032 046
F10.7 077 076 076 082 087 087 093
èbcg á4.0 á2.6 á4.2 ÷1.3 ÷1.7 ÷1.9 ÷2.3 GOES
Sp 170 185 130 100 250 540 570 msh
N 1 1 1
IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 4.6E+6 1.9E+6 1.6E+6 1.2E+6 1.5å+6 1.7E+6 1.4E+6 GOES
Ie>2 432 198 155 144 154 140 151 pfu
Ap 10 14 6 6 4 3 4 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 8 17 5 6 4 3 4 IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS CAN NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNENIC CONDITION REMAIND QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EX-
CEPT 19.10, WHEN THE 6-hour SUBSTORM INTENCITY G1 WAS OBSERVED AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATA. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA THIS
SUBSTORM INTENCITY WAS G0. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS ASSOCI-
ATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM WEAK CO-
RONAL HOLE OF THE S-HEMISPHERE.
THE NEXT WEEK MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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