Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2021/01/11

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 04 - 11.01.2021,
                  Forecast on 11 - 18.01.2021,
            Carrington Rotation 2239(25,94.12.2020)   
                Earth out of ecliptic (-0.9 - -1.4) deg. 
               (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
AND THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (8 DAY AT 2021). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE AT VERY LOW LEVEL. THE VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISC  WILL BE SPOTLESS VERY LIKELY. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVELS. NO SOLAR FLARE OF LOW X-
RAY CLASS "B", ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT FROM S-W QUADRANT 
ON ~S25W60 8.01 AND EIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (06-08.01) HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.   Class  E(1-8A) AR  RII/IV   CME
                                X-ray/p J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l deg.  Fl    AR       CME/to
08.01      0434     SW-qwadrant    ~10               CME/0512 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign  N end  E end   S end   W end    Sch   EE    R  G Sp/craft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 5.01/13 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA-
RY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN 
BE EXPECT 11.01.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  04     05     06     07     08     09     10   JANUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   078    075    074    075    075    074    073
bcg   2.7   2.0  <A1.0   A1.0   1.4   1.2  <A1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                    
IMF      -     +/-     -      -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  8.3E+6 5.4+6 1.3E+6 1.6E+6 2.3E+6 2.3E+6 2.5+6   GOES
Ie>2    652   1174    162    144    207    179    210   pfu 
Ap       3      11     11     6      2      3      3    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     2     10      5      5      1      2      3    n IZMIRAN 
----------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ALL DAYS THERE WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED. 

IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE  IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSETT-
LED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.  

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov