Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2022/05/16

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 09 - 15.05.2022,
                     Forecast on 16 - 23.05.2022 
              Carrington Rotations 2257 (01,1.05. 2022) 
                Earth out of ecliptic (3.1 - 3.4) deg. 
              (S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WAS ON MIDLLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED 
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=9+16/-22 (Wn=98+31/-32). THERE 
ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK  UP  TO 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS THE MID-
DLE SIZE AND 5 PASSED ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL.  WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-30.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X-
RAY WAS CLASS "X",  5 - CLASS "M", 69 - CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT 
EJECTION  AND 42 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (10 - 15.05), HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
10.05 1350 1355 1449 S30W04L246  X1.5/1B 3.1E-02 13006 II/3|718  CME       
11.05 1624 1649 1707 S24E39L190  1N/M1.6 1.3E-02 13007                 
11.05 1808*2050 1858 S17W89L323  M2.7/SF 4.2E-02 13004 II/2|1258 CME 
                                                       II/2|1345 CME
11.05 1927 1935 1931 S17W89L323  M2.2/   1.2E-02 13004                
12.05 2004 2027 2019 N14E88L     M1.3 	 9.2E-03 13011                 
* - two radiodi   II    

DSF (EPL) to     te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CME/to
06.05   >0116  >1257 N37W10L284       6 
-------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12.04/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 
25.05.
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
APRIL     09     10     11     12     13     14     15  
Wus      071    062    084    112    120    105    129 
F10.7    117    116    133    133    150    153    154
bcg    5.8   1.3   1.1   1.0   C1.2   1.1   1.0  GOES
Sp       450    420    450    580    610    580    720  msh   
N         2             2      1             1      2  
IMF       -      -      -     -/+     +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2   1.2+6 1.0E+6 1.3E+6 1.0E+6 1.0E+6 1.2E+6 1.2E+6  GOES
Ie>2     151    112    146    112    243    167    140  pfu
Ap        8      3      6      8      7      7      12  n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      7      3      7      7      9      6      11  IZMIRAN   
--------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT 
 OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Pr (>10 MeV) To 11.05/~19; MAX - 12/04-5.45 pfu;  - 13.05/18

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WILL BE AT UNSETTLED AND LOW 
LEVELS. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS  ARE ONLY POSSIBLE FROM SPORADIC 
FLARES EVENTS.  

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov